The Analysis On Inflation Based On The Econometric Model

Inflation is an important index which weigh stabilization and healthiness of the macro-economy. The macro policy constitutor nearly pay attention to the condition of the inflation. So the inflation rate becomes one of the focus of macro economics. Inflation of our country looks complex under the influence of interlaced factors at the stage of economy developing and system transforming. Analyzing the reason of inflation objectively and intensively has realistic meaning for the stable development of the economy.The paper study the issue of inflation since opening and innovation by the numbers with morden econometric model. First, we analyzes the change of behaving mode of inflation since opening and innovation. Seasonal analyse shows evident multiplex characters. Traditional inflation analytic model at the base of steady time sequence. Aimed at this problem, the article probes into the stability of the time sequence with ADF, PP and KPSS test. The result shows the new method must be searched to study inflation for the non-balanced time sequence.The mostly influencing factors of inflation are output, currency, investment and income. The paper analyzes the long-term balanced relation among inflation rate, increasing rate of GDP, increasing rate of currency supplying, increasing rate of fixed assets and increasing rate of income per captia. The consequences among them are tested by Granger casulity test. At the same time, the inpluse reponse function and square decomposing technique are used to make quantitative analysis about the fluctuation of inflation. The investigation shows that GDP increasing rate, M2 increasing rate and fixed assets increasing rate are the Granger causations of inflation rate. The domino offect of conduction of the inflation rate is great. Output, currency and investment influenced inflation rate differently.Inflation will influence the growth of economy. The paper finds that moderate inflation is good for the development of economy by comparing the relation between the inflation rate and economy developing rate of different types of countries in the 1990s. At last the paper puts forward the suggestion to realize steady growth of economy by keeping low inflation rate.