| Coal is the main energy in China, while the development of coal industry also sustain the increase of the national economy. The graph of coal supply and demand shows that the total supply of coal was always higher than the consumption during these years. However, there're still some areas in China where coal is not ample sometimes. So it's very important to analyze factors in the balance of coal supply and demand, then educe some countermeasures. And that's the importance of this dissertation.Based on the theory of supply and demand, this dissertation focuses on the reality of China and combines qualitative and quantitative methods to study the balance of the supply and demand of coal. At the very beginning of this dissertation, the condition of supply and demand of coal in China is stated, following the inconsistent features. Besides, with the knowledge of the supply and demand condition, this dissertation demonstrates the rationality of using the theory of System Dynamics to solve this problem. Then the SD model of the balance system is set. With the help of history data, the model could be run. The result of base run indicates that according to the current trend, the effective supply of coal would still be equal to the coal transporting capacity. In another way, coal transportation is the bottleneck of coal supply. Some coal exploration companies have to set their supply quantity of coal according to the transporting capacity. Therefore part of coal can't be transported out of the production unit so as to be the effective supply. So coal transporting ratio and investment on transportation industry ratio are set to be politic variables. Then another two runs are made. The results of basesim2 and basesim3 show that these two measures can greatly increase the effective supply of coal so as to reduce the coal gap and finally promote the national economy.In the last part of this dissertation, to keep balance, a few of countermeasures about supply, demand and transportation are listed. |
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