The Research On The Supply Of New Increase In Tanker

The international shipping market of tanker is a competitive and fluctuant one, and at the same time it is an industry characterized with special risks, such as worldwide political events, economic fluctuation, nature factors and etc. which influence the market and increase operating risks.Through a great deal of data collection and some relevant research materials, the author analyzed the supply and demand status, developing trends and the new traits of current international tanker shipping market. At the same time, the current structure of tanker shipping ability and the new developing trend of tanker with larger loading weight and younger age were studied in the dissertation. The new increase tanker is the keystone of this dissertation. The author explained the influence of it to the demand of tanker market, analyzed multifold influencing factors and their internal relationship and rules by qualitative methods. In addition, the author also studied its influence to the total quantities of orders in hands of dockyard. Based on the theory of assembled model, this dissertation divided the demands of new increase carriers into two parts as a term of long-term tendency and a term of latent period fluctuation, and took harmonic model to fit them according to their different characteristics. In the process of fitting, the optimized model was found by data analyses and statistics. The Leverberg-Varquardt modify model of nonlinear least-square Gauss-Newton iteration method was used in the calculate process of latent period fluctuation term, by which the time series assembled model of demand of the new increase tankers for each kind of tankers had been established. As a result, this model got good conclusion and forecasted future demand of new increase tankers for different types in the coming five years.