The Research On The Level Of Voluntary Disclosure In Profit Forecast Of China IPO

The accounting information differentiates from the reflection time, might divide into the historical information and the future information, at present accountant system provides the information mostly will be the historical information, but the investors will consider more in future information provision. Therefore as a part of the future finance information —profit forecast information will be attached importance to. The article is precisely the goal embarks, analysis system construction influence in the profit forecast level of voluntary disclosure of information through the standard research and the empirical research.First, the text analyses supply-demand and cost-benefit of the profit forecast information from the theoretical perspective and the related disclosure forms, then discuss the forecast profit motive of listed companies, then introduced foreign profit forecast disclosure system on the basis of our profit forecast system related note, summarized its characteristics and its system development background for empirical research preparation.Then, from the empirical perspective, after the policy allows for voluntary disclosure in Shenzhen and Shanghai on April 30, 2000 to December 31, 2004 listed companies issuing new shares and March 6, 2001 to December 31, 2004 the first issue of shares of listed companies made profits forecasts reliability systematic study and to consider the corporate governance, the impact of factors such as company performance, the variables affecting the profit forecast for testing. Final conclusion is: to some extent, listed companies profit forecast reliability is effected by the size of the firm and the forecast interval. Company size is greater, the greater the difficulty of forecasting, and reliability is lower;the longer the forecast interval, the lower the reliability is.Finally considering the profit forecast system in our country, the paper put forward the proposals in profit forecast system of our listed companies from the demand and supply of the forecast, for instance vigorously develops the organization investor as the main investors in the securities market, thus makes the effective market demand;at the same time improving profit forecast level of voluntary of listed companies , thus building effective in the market.