Research On Local Fiscal Risk And Its Early-Warning

The finance, as the guarantee of the government, is the last undertaker of the whole social risk, which will synthesize the fiscal risk at last. Seen from all the world, the fiscal risk is the most serious social risk. If it weren't controlled in time, there will be a tragedy consequence. The local finance is the base of the national, so the status of the local finance decides stability and the efficiency of the national fiscal system in a great degree. Nowadays, the study on early-warning system of local fiscal risk has been an international problem. Many countries have made research for it. So establishing an early-warning system of risk in local government finance is very useful to avoid explosion of government fiscal crisis. It will become extraordinary importance that we should strengthen the analysis and research on fiscal risk.Basing on the defining government fiscal risk, the dissertation summarizes the domestic and abroad theories about risk and the methods of early-warning economic risk, sets up early-warning monitoring indexes of local fiscal risk according to assets and liabilities of local government. On the basis of the thing that the advantage and disadvantage to the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is analyzed thoroughly, the dissertation introduces SAS Analysis to simplify the early-warning index system, and the model of BP ANN is trained by local fiscal date from 1996 to 2003, then the trained model will be analyzed fiscal dates of 2004 and pre-warns local fiscal risk of 2005.This paper mainly includes: 1. The postulate of fiscal risk and economic early-warning, it introduces the conception of the finance and fiscal risk , the reasons why it uses the method of BP ANN. 2. The research of local fiscal risk, this chapter analyses its exhibition from the local liabilities, assets, revenues and so on. 3. Construct local fiscal early-warning model and the application according SAS and ANN analysis and the qualitative analysis of experts 4. Some countermeasure and advice aiming at preventing risks and supplying some methods and ideas for works.This paper summarizes the predecessors' researches, enhances the practical effect of early-warning of local fiscal risk. The research in this paper will provide decision-making with scientific base and valuable reference.