The Research Of Warning Ways On The Financial Distress In Chinese Listed Companies

The real forecast must be built on the correct and perfect methods, or it will become the deceitful trick if the method is not perfect. Some researches tell us that forecast models which base on the perfect methods have very important meaning to the development of human society.Nowadays along with foreign multinational companies flowing into China, it is very important that local companies can grasp the opportunity to answer serious competition and challenge and develop smoothly. The operation condition of local companies relates closely with the development of our country. Once they fall into financial distress, especially malignant financial distress, more investors, more creditors and more enterprises will be embroiled in, even the whole country will be influenced badly, It has become the most concerned problem how to try their best to evade the risk and reduce the loss, which attracts many economic scholars to investigate unremittingly, and find more accurate and effective methods. Certain research proved that the valid warning analysis on financial distress can help the companies find the source of financial distress, and adopt the corresponding methods in time to keep financial status from further depravation. But some shortcomings still exist in current various ways of establishing financial distress warning models, as logistic model and artificial neutral network, The times invokes more perfect warning methods to raise accurate rate of forecasting financial distress, so that the investors, the creditors and the companies judge the financial status, and make decisions timely and correctly.Firstly, this paper uses two kind of methods of Logistic and ANN(artificial neutral network)which many economic scholars adopt to forming the warning models respectively. By comparing the process of forecast judgment and results, and analyzing their merits and shortcomings, especially the shortcomings of the methods which is built on the warning models, then the paper gets to know the shortages of current methods forming warning methods. At last the paper gets a conclusion that it is necessary to find a better warning method. Wavelet neutral network which closely combines neutral network with wavelet analysis is a perfect forecast method that many scholars have proved, this paper firstly uses the way of wavelet neutralnetwork to form warning model to judge the financial status. Wavelet neutral network replaces Sigmoid function with Wavelet function as activation function. Wavelet function adopts Mother wavelet of Morlet, which is Gauss Wave through what the Cosine makes. The paper uses wavelet neutral network to build up warning model, and judges its forecast results, then draws a conclusion that wavelet neutral network has many superior functions in the warning.