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An Empirical Analysis Of The Expectation Effect On Some Chinese Macroeconomic Variables

Posted on:2007-10-10Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:R Y WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2179360185450751Subject:International Trade
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
As an important factor to influence the efficiency of the monetary policy, expectation has been concerned by people for a long time. Currently studies are so inclined to combine it with inflation and monetary policies, that no study combined it with commodity market have been found now. Trying to combine expectation with commodity market, this paper researches how the expectation influences the output of China.After closely investigating the period of 1978-2006 in China, not only was the consumption, investment and output of China evidently found to be positive related with the expectant commodity price level, but it has also been found that the expectation has an enlarging effect on the economic fluctuation, which will even be strengthened with the marketing degree.To minimize the harm which might be brought by the enlarging effect on the economic fluctuation and utilize the positive function of expectation, the government should on one hand, do more investigation on residents' expectation and know more about it, which can make sure the microeconomic foundation of the macroeconomic policies, on the other hand, should the government lead the residents to have more rational expectation.
Keywords/Search Tags:Expectation, Expectation effect, Expectant price level of residents, the circulation of the macroeconomics in China
PDF Full Text Request
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