Research On Application Of Grey Theory In Deformation Analysis Of Cross-fault Site

Deformation data anomaly of cross-fault site will be influenced by many factors.Therefore, before the deformation analysis we must exclude the influence of theseextraneous factors. The single across-fault site abnormal deformation relationship withearthquake appears often has larger uncertainties, which require a certain amount oftechnology integration observation data make these groups to reflect crustal movements. Inconclusion, eliminate the interference factors establish anomaly model, extend the singlesite analysis to Multi-site analysis is particularly important.Through the site leveling data and confounding factors (temperature, pressure, rainfall,etc.) analyzing establishes the observation model of grey relational analysis based onsequence similarity, and attempt to establish an evaluation model of grey relational analysis.For WO Zi tan site and Da Quan kou site establishing grey relation analysis, the results areconsistent with the results of correlation analysis on SPSS. In terms of deformation anomalyrecognition, through establish grey GM (1,1) model to identify deformation anomaly.According to metabolized GM (1,1) model and residual error GM (1,1) model establishesa dynamic outlier’s identification model, using a dynamic threshold to determinedeformation anomaly values. Using the GM (1,1) model to simulate the observation values,we can establish base value line, which trend anomalies and the sudden jump abnormal canassist determining earthquake precursor reaction. At the same time, by grey relationalanalysis calculating relational degrees of multiple sites each other generate contour mapsand according contour maps to assist determine earthquake precursors.Verified by examples, gray relational analysis model and evaluation model caneffectively identify confounders. The simulate precision and forecast precision of GM (1,1)model are high. Combined with residual error GM (1,1) model be calculated thresholdvalues can effectively determine the jump abnormal of level monitoring. In the same venue deformation anomalies are repetitive for earthquake precursor; a single site can be use ofdeformation anomaly repeatability to improve the accuracy of the determination ofearthquake precursors. Although multi-site joint analysis largely avoid aseismic anomaly,but Sites selected influence on the results of the site combined analysis is relatively large.