A Forecast Method Of The Slide Distance Of Loess Seismic Landslide Based On Fuzzy Information Optimization Processing Model

Lots of loess seismic landslides have developed in Loess Plateau of Northwest, China which have seriously affected local people’s normal production, lifeand local economy as for high frequency and destructive. Disaster area analysis of loess seismic landslide and the sliding distance could ascertain the endanger scope and put forward suggestion for the prevention.According to the previous research and require of this research, the analysis of different factors, and by means of field geological survey, measuring, spot and laboratory test, a systematic and further analysis, the loess seismic landslide is studied. A method to forecast the disaster area of loess seismic landslideis given.Combining the former research and components, the loess seismic landslides developed in the loess area are divided into four types: homogeneous loess landslide, loess interface landslide, loess-gravel-bedrock landslide and loess-bedrock landslide. Homogeneous loess landslide which accounts for over60%of thetotal seismic landslides is deeply analyzed in this paper.Morgenstern-price method is used for calculating the stability of loess slopes. The relationship between the different factors and safe factor is discussed in the paper and the factors such as seismic intensity, relative altitude, slope angle, unit weight, internal cohesion, internal friction angle have influenced the safe factors.The impact analysis of different factors on loess seismic landslide slidingdistance is given. It can be figure out that seismic magnitude determines the scale of the landslide disaster area and seismic intensity effects the distributionof the landslide. The relationship between the direction of landslide and the direction of epicenter fracture determines the relevance of the intensity and slopedirection.Fuzzy information model is used for the calculation of seismic loess landslides sliding distance. By comparing of other methods, the result proves that the accurate of the method is better to forecast loess seismic landslides disasterarea. And based on93loess seismic landslides, fuzzy information matrix is built. By computing with the calculating and field observing data, the loess seismic landslide disaster area is given. The seismic disaster area of22dangerous landslides in Tianshui is forecasted and seismic landslide disaster prevention andreduction of loess area is provided as examples.