Desertification Predicting Model And Qualitative Analysis

Sandy desertification is currently one of the world importantenvironmental-economic issue, The rapid expansion of desertification land area,hascaused severe environmental degradation and huge economic losses.Taklimakandesert located in Xinjiang’s Hetian region,is the world’s second flow desert.Meanwhile, the south part of Taklimakan is one of most serious land desertificationin china.Taking the ecotone of oasis and desert as research subject in the southmargin of Taklimakan desert, in Minfeng county Xinjiang.In this paper found an forecasting mathematical module by simulatinganalyzing the influence of natural and social to desertification process. The transfermatrix was set up for desertification and desertification trend and oasis. Based onmathematic viewpoint, this paper further forward perfect the module of desertificationprediction and found an new differential equation model to predict the land typetransformation of south margin of Taklimakan under considering population andnatural factor. Horwitz’s lemma,Dulac function. Using four-order quaternionRunge-Kutta method.The result shown It is very useful to dynamically monitordesertification trend in large range by quantitatively analyzing and computingdesertification status using prediction ordinary differential equation.this papercould be able to analyze and research future desertification trend in this area.Meanwhile, using this model qualitatively analyze every balance point and get thespreading condition of desertification compared the predicting value and realvalue,the accuracy of area of desertification90%.This paper could give positivesuggestion for this region making policy or taking action by numerical simulation ofland type transformation.The main content of this article can be summarized as follows: First chapter ispreface. we explain the seriousness of desertification introduce study conditions.Second chapter，we give construct of the predicting model, and give qualitativeanalysis.Third chapter，we give model validation using Minfeng county of Xinjiang asan explain.Fourth chapter，we give the grassland desertification under different climate conditions created two different models, and give grassland desertification qualitativeanalysis...