Assessing The Social And Economic Vulnerability To The Impact Of Sea-level Rise And Storm Surges

Shanghai is one of the most typical city in Yangtze River Delta. This paper selects it as the research area. It supposes that Shanghai remains its present response to global climate change and prevention comprehensive ability. Then it simulates Shanghai’s model in 2030 and 2050 according to global climate change, land use types, scenario simulation of extreme hazard (low scenario:similar Typhoon 0608; High Scenario: Similar to Typhoon 9711).And it also simulates Shanghai’s population density and distribution GDP developments (low, medium, high economic growth of 6%,7% and 8%). Then it overlays the two layer and draws the population loss and the economic loss through population loss curve and economy loss curve with the software of ArcGIS platform.The results show that in the background of the low scenario (0608 storm surge disaster scenario), Shanghai will have 809.88 km2 and 1535.55 km2 affected area in 2030 and 2050, which is 12.37% and 23.42% of total area. The population of potential losses is 867 and 1,174 people in 2030 and 2050 and the potential economic losses are 313.9 billion,375.3 billion and 447.8 billion and 1142.3 billion,1647.5 billion and 2367.9 billion (economic growth speed scenario:6%,7%,8%). Under the high scenario (9711 storm surge disaster scenario), Shanghai will have 98.17 km2 and 2423.4 km2 affected area in 2030 and 2050, which is 1.5% and 36.96% of total area. The population of potential losses is 476 and 5,658 people in 2030 and 2050 and the potential economic losses are 69.3 billion,82.8 billion and 98.8 billion and 4198.1 billion,6054.6 billion and 8702.5 billion (economic growth speed scenario:6%,7%,8%).