Modeling The Transmission Dynamics Of A Class Of Zoonotic Avian Influenza

In the historical process of human development, infectious diseases have always been a threat to human health and the safety of life and property. Epidemic dynamics, which is based on the theory, is an important method for qualitative and quantitative analysis and research infectious diseases.In this paper, we establish an appropriate H7N9 avian influenza virus epidemic model and study its stability, determine whether the H7N9 avian influenza virus epidemic in the human. There are four parts of this article.In the first part, We describe development history of the epidemic dynamics ODE model, and the theme of this paper and the avian flu and H7N9 avian influenza has been described in detail.In the second part, we introduce several basic concepts of the epidemic dynamics and the method of determining the stability of the equilibrium point of ordinary differential equations.In the third and fourth part presents two H7N9 avian influenza disease transmission model, which include poultry and humans. On this basis, we establish an epidemiology model to simulate the spread of avian influenza in a chicken farm and use the model to analyze the stability permanence and extinction conditions of the system. The basic reproduction numbers for human-to-human transmission and bird-to-bird transmission are given. Through the simulation, we obtain the conditions for virus gradually disappear or exist permanently in human and bird respectively. Specially, under certain conditions, the disease gradually disappears in the bird, but exists permanently in the human.