The Scenario Prediction Of Yellow Sea’s Dynamic Environment Response To Future Climate Variation

Based on the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, this paper used the East China Sea regional model relies on POM (Princeton Ocean Model) model to research the variation of the Yellow Sea’s dynamic environment which responses to the climate changes in the future under RCP4.5scenario. We have valued the coupled ocean-atmosphere model results first, comparison results show that the model can well simulate the east Asia monsoon climate characteristics, such as, the prevailing wind in winter and summer, the precipitation characteristics of the sea and land distribution and seasonal feature. By comparing the four coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulation results, it shows that under RCP4.5scenario, the East Asian winter monsoon winds will be weaken, the summer monsoon will become stronger, and the heat flux will increase for all-year. Using each climatology results simulated by coupled atmosphere-ocean model as the atmospheric forcing to run POM model, the simulation results are more consistent. And compared with historical data, it shows that the model results can simulate the Yellow Sea hydrological characteristics very well, such as:the seasonal variation of shape and area of10℃isotherm; the simulation results of35°N section temperature can grasp the distribution characters very well in the other seasons, except spring(May),whose temperature simulated higher than historical data,this is due to the lower resolution of the wind field. All of above evidence verify the credibility of the model results.For Yellow Sea’s dynamic environment response to climate change in the future, the POM simulation results obtained good agreement with each coupled climate model simulations as forcing. Under RCP4.5scenario, the temperature of Yellow Sea will increase in the whole year, the increasing range of about2℃, in the winter, Yellow Sea warm water will raise2.99℃simulated by GFDL-CM3, which is the biggest simulation increasing, and the average results of the four modes is2.2℃. The direct cause of this result is the increasing of air-sea heat exchange quantity, which is due to the winter monsoon weakened, making the latent heat of evaporation reduced, and the water loses heat to reduce, then leading to the rising of the sea temperatures eventually; while the Yellow Sea cold water mass is the " residual " of Yellow Sea’s mixes water last winter, so it is affected by the variation inevitably. To determine the changes of the Yellow Sea cold water mass’s scope and the center temperature, the paper calculated the variation of the bottom layer8℃isotherm envelope area and minimum temperature of the water mass. The results show that the average reduction in cold water mass area is46.8%, while the central chilled water temperature can be increased up by2.44℃maximum, and four model simulations average temperature rise of1.88℃; in the case of winter monsoon weakened, the Yellow Sea Warm Current also would be weakened correspondingly, which is a current with the nature of compensation. This results can be corroborated with the reduce of lateral heat transportation, meanwhile the surface currents and along-shore currents are reduced.