Forecast The Impact Of Climate Change On Distribution Of Breeding Place Of White-naped Crane In China

The scientific evaluation and prediction on the issue that climate change affects biodiversity is a core problem arousing common concern in the current research of biodiversity. Through the method of field survey etc., the distribution data of the breeding places of White-naped Cranes(Grus vipio) in the Northeast China were obtained. Taking the data of temperature, precipitation etc., as the environmental factors, and making use of Maxent, the potential distribution of the Grus vipio’s breeding places in the Northeast China was predicted. On this basis, the models of three kinds of general atmospheric circulation were combined; and integrated with two kinds of climate scenarios at the same time, the influence of the climate change on the distribution of Grus vipio’s breeding places in the Northeast China was predicted and analyzed. At last, the suggestions were made towards the protection of Grus vipio’s breeding places.First, through searching the literatures, the characteristics of the habitats of Grus vipio were grasped. On this basis, the field survey was conducted in the main breeding areas of the Grus vipio in Northeast China. The breeding places of Grus vipio are mainly located in the Three River Plain, the middle and lower reaches of Nen River Plain, Hui River and Dalai Lake Regions in the west of Hulunbeier City, Inner Mongolia in China. According to the survey, it was observed that due to the rise of temperature, the shortage of precipitation and so on, the wet lands where the Grus vipios can survive seriously degraded, and the distribution range began to shrink. The climate change had become one of the important elements influencing the distribution of Grus vipio. By taking advantage of ArcGIS tool, the collected distribution data of Grus vipio were processed, and then the reproduction distribution diagram of Grus vipio in the Northeast China was obtained.Second, by taking advantage of Maxent, and combined with the current climate benchmark data, the potential distribution of the breeding places of Grus vipio in China was simulated. The results have been processed, thus obtaining the range of the appropriate survival sections. The precision of the models was evaluated, and on the basis of good effects, the combine of three kinds of general atmospheric circulations of CCMA:CGCM2,CSIRO:MK2and HADCM3, as well as two climate scenarios of A2and B2on the distribution range of the breeding places of Grus vipio in Northeast China in the future was predicted, and the comparison was made with the distribution in benchmark climate. The results suggested that under the climate models of CCMA and CSIRO, the distribution range of Grus vipio will gradually shrink, and the distribution center show the tendency to move northward and westward. Although the distribution range will enlarge under the model of HADCM3, the distribution center also will move westward. At the end of this century, the western region of Hulunbeier city, Inner Mongolia will become the main distribution region of Grus vipio. Under the scenario of A2, the amplitude of variation of Grus vipio’s distribution will be larger than that under the scenario of B2, which suggested that the influence of uneven changing modes on the distribution of Grus vipio’s breeding places is larger. In addition, the differences exist between the results predicted under the three kinds of atmospheric general circulation models, which suggested that the selection of models will generate uncertainty towards the results of prediction.Third, the main elements influencing the changes of the distribution of the Grus vipio’s breeding places were analyzed. In order to better protect the living environment of Grus vipio, some suggestions were put forward.