Research Of Dynamic Influence Live Sheep Migration Makes On Sheep Diseases

Most of sheep diseases like brucellosis, peste des petits ruminants are related tocross-infection between farms and live sheep migration besides infection inside farms. Thesediseases promptly arrive at many of provinces in China, presenting increasing trend. In orderto prevent the diffusion of these diseases, it is particularly vital to formulate effectivemeasures of prevention and control. Paper obtains real network of live sheep migrationthrough link prediction and, based on that, established patches models by combing epidemicmechanism and transmission characteristics of brucellosis in Hinggan League of InnerMongolia and peste des petits ruminants in JiangSu province. Furthermore, modelreasonability is demonstrated by qualitative and quantitative analysis, which predictsprevalent trend and gives optimal measures of prevention and control.Chapter1, mainly introduces research background and significance on transmissionmodels of sheep diseases related to migration and the main content of paper.Chapter2, studies the reconstruction of nationwide network about live sheep migration.According to actual data, the observation map of live sheep migration in China is obtainedthrough ArcGIS software and by applying link prediction method a more completereconstruction network of live sheep migration is given. The obtained results providetheoretical foundation for controlling animal diseases and formulating prevention measures.Chapter3, in accordance with the epidemic propagation mechanism, establishes a sort ofsheep epidemic transmission models between adjacent farms, involving the influence thecross-infection of different distance farms and live sheep migration make. Through dynamicanalysis of model, we attain the reproduction number and discuss the existence offree-disease and epidemic equilibriums, demonstrating the global stability of free-disease equilibrium, and finally theoretical results are verified via numerical simulation, whichanalyze the sensibility different parameters generate on the reproduction number.Chapter4, according to the cultivation modes in Hinggan League of Inner Mongolia andthe propagation characteristics of brucellosis, builds patches dynamic model associated withmigration and presents the expression of free-disease equilibrium and the reproductionnumber. The developing process of epidemic is taken on by the qualitative and quantitativeanalysis on built model and numerical simulation. As consequences show, it is better forcontrolling and preventing the epidemic transmission, even totally wiping out brucellosiswhen culling and disinfection measures are taken and sheep migration decreases.Chapter5, in terms of pathogenesis and transmission characteristics of peste des petitsruminants in JiangSu province, makes SEIV dynamic model and give its the reproductionnumber and free-disease equilibrium globally asymptotic stability. Considering the migrationsituation among three patches, the explanation of equilibrium is presented which tests themodel’s rationality and the sensibility different parameters make on the reproduction numberis analyzed. Results indicate that infectious sheep will diminish and peste des petits ruminantseventually eradicates when immunization rate of susceptible sheep is up to35%and more orthe culling rate of infectious sheep is more than60%.