The Formation And Development Of The Bayesian Statistical Theory

In mathematical statistics,Bayesian School has developed into an influential school.Today, it’s growing impact.Through studying the related books,this thesis employs the analysis method of historical material and comparative study method to research in detail the bayesian theory on the basis of formers’ existing work.The main work is as follows:First,the thesis makes a deep discussion in terms of the studies of Bayes,on the basis of reading the original "An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances" Focusing on the analysis of how the Bayesian proposed Bayesian theory,Bayesian formula, the Bayesian hypothesis,etc.The Bayesian and articles can be seen as a Bayesian school start.Second,making a deep discussion in terms of the studies of the original "Memoir on the Probability of the Causes of Events"Laplace independent in this article proposed the consistent with the theory of Bayesian reasoning principle"principle of insufficient reasoning ".This paper compares the Bayesian and Laplace. Reveals the difference of the two thoughts.Third,the thesis introduces the confirmation of bayesian theory in the20th century,and the subsequent development and application.The paper finishes the historical context of Bayesian theory from emergence to development.Fourth,This paper compares Bayesian school and classical school in the interpretation of the probability,the choice of information in statistical inference and the understanding of the random variable.Analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of Bayesian School and classical school.