| Total solar radiation is essential elements of many areas of scientific research, due to the insufficient data of radiation, it is necessary to seek a way to use conventional method to calculate the solar radiation data, however, it’s often overlooked because of the influence of the air quality, which tends to make the solar total radiation calculation error is bigger.This article conducts systematic analysis on the solar radiation measured data over 62 national stations in 1983-2012, studies the characteristics and annual total radiation and seasons of long-term trend of the temporal and spatial distribution of total radiation in China on the ground.Through the statistical analysis on the national 23 site temperature, sunshine hours and the air pollution index of measured data in 2001-2012, considering the solar radiation and air pollution index of correlation, regression method to establish the model of astronomical solar radiation with the percentage of sunshine, daily range of air temperature and air pollution index as the leading factor by using the nonlinear, here referred to as DSRM-Y (Daily Solar Radiation Model-Y), to test its effect and with the existing DSRM-C model (Daily Solar Radiation Model-C) effect than the last, using the DSRM-Y model, the observation of solar radiation varies with air pollution index. Draw the following main conclusions:(1) The main distribution characteristic of Chinese solar radiation is high in the northwest, low in the southeast, inland areas are higher than the coastal area, the plateau region is higher than in plain areas, and dry areas are higher than humid area. Whether radiation of the year or the four seasons, Qinghai Tibet Plateau is a stable high value area, mountains of Sichuan and Chongqing perennially maintain a stable low value.(2) During 30 years, total daily solar radiation in our country is on the rise as a whole, The biggest rise is in spring, followed by summer, autumn and winter. The 1993s～2002s and 1983s-1992s rise, compared with most of the sites radiation and concentration distribution in the south of Qinghai and Tibet, and the 2003s～2012s and 1992s～2002s, compared it is 1:1 distribution site of rise and fall, radiation change distribution pattern. The four seasons of daily global radiation of the ten year average change in distribution pattern can be seen, the rise in total daily radiation the most obvious is in the areas of Shiquanhe and Naqu. The tendency of 75% sites’ year total radiation climate with four seasons rate is positive, solar radiation increased.(3) The 23 sites’ daily total radiation and air pollution index showed a negative correlation. The parameters and the four seasons throughout the year total daily radiation model of a, b, c changed slowly, parameters of d changed obviously. Comparing with the seasonal model with the year model, we should choose suitable model according to the advantages and disadvantages effect of the radiation model in different areas and different seasons, so as to enhance the precision of the model.(4) From the simulation and forecast test results together, either annual or four models, the MBE value shows the fitting effect of DSRM-Y model with high RMSE value. Simulation and prediction of scatter diagram can also be seen in the measured value and the estimated value, the composition of the coordinate system, the coordinates of points are on both sides of the distribution of basic y=x line, the model fitting effect is also good.(5) 23 sites throughout the year DSRM-Y model RMSE was less than DSRM-C model, DSRM-Y model, the four seasons for values of RMSE less than the DSRM-C model of the site accounted for 91% of the total, so whether annual or four, the radiation effect model is higher than that of DSRM-C model. When the air pollution index rose, solar radiation values of Xining, Shanghai, Kunming showed a decreasing trend, a certain extent of the worsening air pollution leads to a reduction in solar radiation. |
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