Statistics Analysis And Grade Of The Accidental Oceanic Disasters In China Sea

By using the statistical principle and method of mathematical statistics,this paper described and explained the information such as frequency and hazard occurring of accidental oceanic disasters in China Sea, it also showed the substantive characteristics and general rule of accidental oceanic disasters in China Sea. The accidental oceanic disasters in China Sea including storm surge disasters, wave disasters, red tide disasters and sea ice disasters in this paper. Meanwhile, according to the disaster emergency plan to establish the evaluation system of accidental oceanic disasters in China Sea and using the data from "The oceanic disasters communique of China" to evaluate the accidental oceanic disasters in the 11 coastal provinces of China.The main work of this paper is:1st, this paper collected and coordinated plenty of data of storm surge disasters, wave disasters, red tide disasters and sea ice disasters in China Sea individually,and it studied on derivation of a qualitative description for the causes and the space-time distribution features of accidental oceanic disasters in China Sea.2nd, based on the principles in establishing the disaster loss evaluation index system, this paper chosen respective disaster activity intensity index and disaster degree index for each oceanic disasters, and established the unique oceanic disasters evaluation index system of China Sea.3rd, based on the statistical principle and method of mathematical statistic, this paper chosen particular statistical measure to quantitative analyze the disaster activity intensity and disaster degree of storm surge disasters, wave disasters, red tide disasters and sea ice disasters in China Sea, such as the measures of dispersion, the central tendency and the regularities of distribution.4th, evaluated the storm surge disasters, wave disasters, red tide disasters and sea ice disasters in the 11 coastal provinces in China with the oceanic disasters evaluation index system.At last, the paper reaches the following conclusion:1st, the typhoon storm surge disasters occur across the China Sea, mostly in the eastern sea area, the extra-tropical storm surge disasters occur in Jiangsu province and those provinces north of it. The quantity of extra-tropical storm surge is large, but the actual losses of it is less, the other way round, the typhoon storm surge process has a small quantity with huge losses.The typhoon storm surge disaster degree is related to it’s activity intensity in southeastern coastal provinces of China,the extra-tropical storm surge also has this relatedness in every stricken coastal provinces. The storm surge disasters caused Guangdong province the most serious direct economic loss all over China, which is 84.84 billion yuan over the 25 years, and it caused 1976 people be killed or missing in the last 25 years in Zhejiang province.2nd, disastrous wave are of frequent occurrence in China Sea, the frequency from high to low in turns to the east China sea, the south China sea, yellow sea and bohai sea.The quantity of disastrous cold air and cyclone wave is much more larger than the quantity of disastrous typhoon wave, the time series of quantity of disastrous cold air and cyclone wave has a intense wave character.Wave disaster space distribution and its loss space distribution is identical. Zhejiang province and Hainan province has the most disastrous wave incidence rate and highest disaster degree index. Hainan province’s economic loss is biggest, most deaths (missing) is in Zhejiang province.3rd.the found times and found range of red tide disaster in China Sea is changed from the speed rise to slow wave decline since the 90 s, the red tides disaster data in recent 10 years is more reflect to the whole picture of red tide disaster in China Sea. Red tide disasters site throughout China sea. but the fact remains that the most frequently sea area is always the east China sea,there is more than half of the total quantity of red tide disasters occur in this area.From 2001 to 2013. Zhejiang province has the greatest disaster activity intensity and highest disaster degree index. Guangxi Au Region and Hainan province has the weakest disaster activity intensity. Hainan province has the lowest disaster degree index.4th. in the last 25 years. Bohai sea and he north part of yellow sea has been in a state of normal light sea ice disaster year.Liaoning province has the greatest sea ice disaster activity intensity index,The highest sea ice disaster degree index and the most occurrence.