Numerical Simulation And Statistical Analysis Of Typhoon Storm Surge Along Shandong Province

Storm surge means the phenomenon of sea level increasing caused by strong atmospheric disturbances, such as typhoon, extratropical cyclone and tropical cyclone. When it approaches astronomical high tide, water level will increase rapidly and the land may be flooded.Shandong is 3024.4 km long coastline, about 1/6 of the national total. The south and east shore of Shandong Peninsula often surfer the Typhoon storm surge. And surge is the most severe one in the all disaster factors. This article discusses the influence of storm surge by typhoon with numerical simulating and statistical analyzing.In this paper, wind field and pressure field are simulated by Fujita typhoon model. The necessary data are from typhoon almanac of China. Then, the wind and pressure field, as forcing, drive the storm surge model with the astronomical tide together. The spatial and temporal distribution of storm tide and tidal flow are get by simulating the typhoon, NO 8509, NO 9216,NO 9711. In astronomical tide model, the root mean square of amplitudes and epochs of K1, M2 partial tide are 2cm,3cm and 5°,3°. And in the storm surge model, the mean absolute error (MAE) of maximal surge is 11.9cm, the MAE of peak-value time 2.5h, which meet the requirements of simulating.After the typhoons from 1960 to 2011 are simulated using the verified ADCIRC model, the 100-year return storm surge elevations are calculated making use of the Poisson-Gumbel distribution. The corresponding calculated results are 186.1cm, 373.0cm,337.5cm in Qingdao, Dongying and Haiyang, which will be adopted to prevent storm surge disaster in the nearshore area of Shandong Province.