Research On The Changepoint Of Temperature Mean Series

With global warming tendency increasing prominent, the temperature change has become a key factor on the impact of climate change. The change tendency and regularity of meteorological elements can be identified through the analyzing the historical meteorological records. Different test methods for long sequences of climate changepoint are summarized firstly. The assumes of the corresponding time series distribution for different methods are compared sequently, and a reliable method is chosen for the analyzing temperature mean series finally. The results obtained are listed as follows: First the temperature mean of Beijing is rising from 1952 to 2014,but the data of Shanghai and Guangzhou is relatively stable. Second, the average annual temperature of this three cities are not distributed normally in the past 60 years within an inadequate overall number, therefore SNHT is not suitable for testing its temperature changepoint. Third, CUSUM test statistic is applied on the three cities‘ temperature mean series for changepoint test.The result shows there is a changepoint in Beijing‘s temperature mean series.The changepoint occurred on 1988.There is no changepoint in Shang Hai and Guangzhou‘s temperature series since 1952. It is in line with the fact that the three cities‘ metadata of Meteorological international base station.