Grey Forecasting Model Of Stochastic Oscillation Sequence And Its Application In Weather System

The grey system theory is founded by professor Deng Julong who is the famous scholar in China in 1982.It studies an “small sample and poor information” uncertainty system whose information is partly known and partly unknown. Grey system theory explores reality regulity through the generation of information, development, and extraction of valuable information.Although the grey forecasting model has a high forecast accuracy on the smooth monotone sequence, it has not ideal forecast effect on oscillation sequence. In order to solve this problem, the grey forecasting model was further optimized in this paper, so as to improve the simulative accuracy of oscillation sequence. Buffer operator theory is one of the main theory of grey system. First,this paper based the three axioms of buffer operator to construct some new buffer operators which to buffer the sequence, weakening its randomness, showing its regularity. Then according to the original sequence with some fluctuations, to build GM(1,1) model for the simulation of access to higher forecasting accuracy. This paper defined a new accelerated translation, which turns the oscillation sequence into monotone sequence and buffer before modeling, to improve the accuracy of the model; Finally, it established GM(1,1) model in a different way and compared the accuracy of the model, to find a GM(1,1) model on the oscillatory sequence.As an application of the model, this paper established a GM(1,1) model about the annual precipitation of the city of Tongchuan. And forecasts the precipitation in the next few years, so as to prevent the disaster from precipitation.