One-shot Decision Research Of Two Irrelevant Factors

In recent society, with the coming of the progress of science and technology and the age of technology economy, the cases of having only one chance are universal, for example:new product development; mergers and acquisitions; the medical treatment choice of a person with a life-threatening illness. For one-shot decision problem, scholars proposed one-shot decision theory, and gradually received widespread attention of academia. However, the research of one-shot decision theory is still in the initial stage, the existing research is limited to a single uncertainty decision problem. Commercial transactions is becoming more and more complicated, uncertain factors affecting commercial transaction increase gradually, in this case, researching one-shot decision problem with multiple uncertain factors has important theoretical and practical significance.Considering that multiple uncertain factors are commonly encountered in decision-making problems, this paper researches one-shot decision problem. Due to the increase of the uncertain factors, one-shot decision problem becomes more complex. This paper mainly considers the situation of two irrelevant uncertainties. Firstly, this paper proposes the possibility distribution function of two-dimensional state of nature, on the basis of it, focus points of decision alternative are proposed according to a decision maker’s attitudes about the possibility and satisfaction of a state of nature, one-shot decision process of two irrelevant uncertainties is obtained. Secondly, based on the relationships between types of focus points, this paper particularly considers the active focus point, the passive focus point, the apprehensive focus point and the daring focus point, in the continuous occasion, the general solutions of focus points and optimal alternatives are given, and the existence theorem of one-shot decision theory is established. Lastly, Newsvendor problem for innovative products based one-shot decision theory are analyzed, the optimal order quantities of 4 types of retailers are obtained, and numerical example is analyzed.