Dynamics Model And Data Analysis Of MERS With Imposed Case

During decades of development, infectious disease dynamics have become a very important subject which can apply the mathematical theory to biology, chemistry, and medical science. Nowadays the development of interdiscipline is promoting the communication and progress among the different disciplines. The interdiscipline provide qualitative and quantitative research of the practical problems and theoreti-cal foundation of the strategy formulation, at the same time, the interdiscipline also encourage scientists to explore the unknown fields.This paper mainly researches the epidemic of MERS-CoV caused by imported cases and secondary cases. The MERS-CoV spreads fast by person to person and has a high fatality rate. This paper is divided into four chapters. The first three chapters provide the theoretical research about the dynamics of MERS-CoV caused by imported cases, and last chapter summarizes the results and puts forward the work that need to be improved.Firstly, we introduce some basic concepts and theories, and the current situation of MERS-CoV. In the meantime, we make a summary of our research.Secondly, we research the epidemic of MERS-CoV caused by imported cases using compartment model. We assume that the population can be divided into such distinct classes:the susceptible class S(t); the exposed class E(t); the infectious class I(t); the quarantined class Q(t); the recovery class R(t). Because of the specificity of MERS-CoV that some individuals have contracted the virus without symptoms or infectiousness, we denote that individuals as A(t). Considering the infection in the isolation treatment, we evaluate the effectiveness of isolation treatment with ε(the better effectiveness of isolation treatment, the smaller ε and vice versa). According to the reproduction number theory raised by Van den Driessche and Watmough, we calculate the reproduction number, and analyze how the rate of isolation treatment, the conversions rate from E(t) to A(t), the rate of isolation, and the effectiveness of isolation treatment impact on the reproduction number. We draw the image with the analysis, we conclude that the most effective measure is improving the effectiveness of isolation treatment.Finally, we improve the model to analyze and simulate the epidemic of MERS-CoV in Republic of Korea 2015 with the news summary of WHO and the data from KMOHW and KCDC. According to the interpersonal communication network analysis, we conclude that MERS-CoV spread by person to person. The situation of MERS-CoV in Republic of Korea is divided into three phases, and we estimate the reproduction number in each phase and put forward the strategy to control the disease.