Uncertainty Analysis On The Response Of Surrounding Groundwater Head To Caizi Lake Stage Change

In this paper, it assumes that the water level of Caizi Lake raises, and the impacts of water level rise on the surrounding groundwater level are studied. The hydrogeological conditions need to be generalized to establish the numerical model of groundwater, so the reliability of the evaluation results can be influenced by the great inevitably uncertainty of numerical parameters. Considering the uncertainty of the parameters in numerical simulation, GMS and Simlab are applied to establish the numerical model of groundwater and analyze the sensitivity and uncertainty of the numerical model parameters, so as to provide a reliable basis for the evaluation of groundwater resources and the conservation of Caizi Lake wetland. The main results are summarized as follows:(1) The dynamic level of lakeside groundwater is predicted based on determining model. It is shown that when the surface water level of Caizi lake raises up by 2 m throughout the year, the variable amplitude of groundwater level that is greater than 0 m mainly occurs within 2 km around the lake; What’s more, the variable amplitude of groundwater level that is greater than 1.5 m mainly occurs within 200 m around the lake.(2) Considering the uncertainty of parameters, the stochastic simulation of groundwater numerical model is carried out by applying GMS and Simlab, and statistics of simulation results can be obtained through the statistical analysis of 486 simulation results. Then the mean contour map and the standard deviation contour map of the key research area groundwater can be got.(3) The calculation water level of four representative points around the Caizi lake are selected as the evaluation standard to analyze the parameter sensitivity on the basis of stochastic simulation. The sensitive parameters of the results are obtained through the analysis of the sensitivity random parameters of the groundwater numerical model with GMS and Simlab software. It can be known that the sensitivity of the parameters is related to the location of the simulation results. Generally speaking, the vertical permeability coefficient of the lake sediments can influence the simulation results of different locations, and the interaction with other parameters has a remarkable influence on the simulation results.