Study Of Industrial Emission Reduction Potential Of Volatile Organic Compounds And Its Impact On Air Quality

In recent years, the ground-level ozone concentrations and organic aerosol concentrationshave elevated obviously in China. Many extreme atmospheric pollution events, such asphotochemical smog and haze, occurred frequently in some areas in China, in which O3andPM2.5were the chief pollutant. As the most important precursors for O3and PM2.5, non-methanevolatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) has not been effectively controlled yet, due to the lackof emission research and basic investigation. To study on the industrial emission of NMVOCs,identify the characterization and spatial distribution of industrial NMVOCs in China, andpredict the reduction potential, are the important foundation for more effective control work onNMVOCs. In this study, an inventory of NMVOCs emission from the industrial sector in Chinafor2010was developed, and future emission for the period of2015-2020was predicted basedon the emission inventory in2010by using scenario analysis method. Moreover, the emissionreduction potential of the NMVOC-control policies was evaluated, and their infuluences onozone in China were investigated by using CMAQ model.Theresults showedthat China’s industrial NMVOCs emissions were16.50Tgin2010, andthe four major source categories generated16.86%,7.85%,13.81%and61.47%of the totalemissions for China. Moreover, the top four industrial emissions sources were oil refinery,architectural decoration, machinery equipment manufacturing and transportation equipmentmanufacturing, accounted for40.51%all together, about66.85Tg. With respect to the spatialdistribution, the industrial NMVOCs emissions decreased gradually from the east to the west,and the emissions mostly occurred in the eastern coastal areas. The top five emission provinceswere Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Liaoning, all emitting more than1Tg,accounting for44%of the national emissions all together.As for future emission, under the BAU (business as usual) scenario, the average annualgrowth rate for2010-2020were predicted to be7.9%, and the emission growth of architecturaldecoration and electronic manufacturing would be higher than other industries. Under thepolicy scenario, the average annual growth rate for2010-2020fell to3.65%, and the emissionfrom the “production of NMVOCs” and “storage and transport” in2020decreased by about10.5%and16.6%from the emission level in2010, presenting significant reductions. The oilrefinery, product oil and solvent distribution, and transportation equipment manufacturing hadthe largest reduction potential. The annual growth rate of Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai andGuangzhou declined most greatly, presenting significant reduction potentials.As for the assessment of the NMVOCs reductions’ impact on air quality in China, either under the policy scenario in2015or the policy scenario in2020, the spatial distribution of ozonereductions showed a significant difference in July and October. And the ozone reduction effectunduer the policy scenario in2020was better than the policy scenario in2015, due to the moreeffective control on NMVOCs in2020.