Research On Method Of Accident Prediction And Accident Control Measures

To further improve the safety conditions, we must pay attention to scientific management in addition to emphasis on safety supervision. Safety principles and accident prevention science theory suggests that:the frequency and regularity of accidents based on statistics is not only the basic quantitative research method of safety science, but also the scientific evidence and quantitative foundation to develop accident prevention measures. This thesis analyzes a variety of prediction theories and compares different methods to look for new accident prediction methods adapt to the accident features. ARMA model and Support Vector Regression (SVR) are invested in. In order to enrich and develop accident prediction techniques, verify the two methods by comparing the results with Grey system’s result. In addition, the thesis puts forward accident control measures in seven aspects according to China’s national conditions, based on analyzing domestic and foreign common mechanism of cause of accidents. It has some of reference value for formulating macro-control measures. This paper mainly contains the following three aspects:(1) Refer to a large number of theses and monograph on advanced forecasting methods at present, carefully explore the effectiveness and applicability of every method, study on the characteristic of accident prediction, analyze typical previous prediction methods used on forecasting accident trends, and then choose appropriate methods according to China accidents characteristics.(2) ARMA model and Support Vector Regression are introduced to forecast industry mortality in China, detail the principles and the modeling process of two models, separately put the two models in practice. Verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the two models used in prediction of accident mortality by comparison with the Gray system Model. (3) By the study of the major domestic and international principles of accident causation and accident control measures, provide a series of countermeasures including reasonable safety management model, intrinsic safety and standardization work, scientific education and training system of security, control of group behavior, effective security incentives, build a safety culture platform and establish and perfect accidental injury insurance system, which can provide a basis for the formulation of accident control methods.