| As one of the sources of China's traditional foreign exchange reserves of agr-products, horticultural products take a notable place in international trade of China's agr-products. Under the context of the global integration as well as the scientific and technological progress, the values of horticultural export in China grow fast along with the rapid development of international trade. With the further opening of international markets for agr-products as well as the increasing competition gradually in international horticultural markets, however, horticultural exports in each country are affected more by the partners. As we all known, the exchange rate has a significant effects to the international trade for a country and region when it to be used as an economic lever. Therefore, the choice of the national exchange rate regime is bound to affect the international trade and flows. After the reform and opening up in China, accompany with the gradual integration between China's economy to world, the changes of RMB exchange rate influence more to the international trade of China, thence, the relationship between the choice of RMB exchange rate regime with international trade enter academic fields gradually.Considering that, what kind of impact the change of RMB exchange rate on China's horticultural export? Does it be the same with the traditional theory, which holds that the depreciation of RMB has a promotion to export? These constitute the main issues in this paper.The whole paper goes as follow:first, analyzed the status of China's production and export of horticultural products; second, described the movement of exchange rate as well as the influence to the horticultural export; third, let the impact between exchange rate with horticultural export be the core issue, and on the basis of all above, we developed an empirical model to analyze the impact RMB real effective exchange rate moved on horticultural export. After that, based on panel data analysis methods, we built a trade gravity model to analyze the effect the bilateral real exchange rate changed on horticultural export. At last, considering the analysis above, we gave the policy proposals to promote the export of horticultural products.In addition to Chapter 1 Introduction and Chapter 5 conclusions and policy implications, the main content of this paper is divided into three Chapters.Chapter 2 described the evolution of China's exchange rate system and current status, as well as the status and characteristics of the horticultural export in China. The results showed that the appreciation of RMB would restrain horticultural export, but the devaluation of RMB would increase horticultural export. From Jan 1,1994, the sharp devaluation of RMB made a rapid increase of horticultural export,21.18% of growth compared with Dec 31,1993. Since then, RMB had a tiny appreciation, along with this, the acceleration of horticultural export slowed down despite of the values of export still on rise. After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, RMB insisted on not devaluing, which led to the decrease of horticultural export. From July 2005 to now, RMB began with a new reform, at the same time, appreciated 2%. Since then, the exchange rate sustained appreciation trend, which weakened the international competitiveness of export products. Therefore, the acceleration of horticultural export slowed down from 2005.Chapter 3 developed a macro-lever theoretical model of horticultural products which based on a sum of assumptions. Further we built an export demand function that explained the impacts exchange rate change of RMB on China's horticultural export. Methods based on time series cointegration, using unit root test to determine whether these three time series were stationary stochastic process, in order to make sure which kind of models to be used to regress. The results showed that series of horticultural export and GDP were both 1(0), series of REER was 1(0) with a structural break, so we put them one empirical model with the structural break dummy variables. Finally, the empirical results confirmed the validity of the theoretical model, and the real effective exchange rate change had a negative effect on China's horticultural export. The coefficient was-0.4346, which meant when REER had increased by 1%, the export of China's horticultural products would decreased by 0.4346%.Chapter 4 based on panel data analysis, we developed a trade gravity model to measure the effects that the changes of bilateral real exchange rate on China's horticultural export with its 10 main partners. The empirical results showed that:the effects the bilateral real exchange rate changed on horticultural export in positive with the influence coefficient of 1.358659, which meant that when the devaluation of RMB was 1%, the increase of horticultural export was 1.36%.Therefore, the effects of RMB exchange rate change on China's horticultural export can not be underestimated, as well as necessary government's policy adjustment. This paper argued that, just considering with the export of horticultural products, the continuously appreciation of RMB exchange rate had a disadvantageous effect on the increase of export, the policy of exchange rate should consider the appropriate depreciation of RMB. However, because of the share of horticultural export against the total exports of China was relatively small, the effect of RMB exchange rate changed on the various trading partners'horticultural export was also different, therefore, arbitrarily letting RMB rise will lead to a "competition of depreciation" in other contry, as well as make a raletive faster appreciation. At the same time, devaluation might also provoke trade retaliation policy in partners, which inhibited the export of horticultural products however. Currently, the exchange rate of China should remain stable relatively, in order to break to the appreciation of RMB. At the same time, the government's policy should focus on the side of agr-products export to promote the growth of horticultural export by adjusting the trade policies. |
PDF Full Text Request