The Study On The Relationship Of The Economic Growth And International Trade In Qingdao

Supreme mortgage crisis spread from 2007 and spread into the global financial crisis has lasted more than two years. The financial crisis and the tremendous impact on the global economy is obvious to all. As countries actively promote the economic stimulus plan, the world economy hit bottom, and gradually start to recover. Our country is very complex and difficult environment in 2009 maintained a growth rate of 8%, the first economic recovery in the world to the good. However, external economic conditions are still not optimistic, especially in the world's major economies after the crisis hit the demand decreased, and the conditions of slow growth recovery, trade protectionism against China's policies have been proposed, China's foreign trade import and export trade more serious setback.Under this background, Qingdao as Chinese major foreign trade port, although the foreign trade a unique geographical and policy advantage is so bad, but the external trade environment will no doubt Qingdao economic growth leads to pressure. Articles from the financial crisis have a negative impact on foreign trade and thus hinder the viewpoint of economic growth, according to data on economic performance before and after the crisis, with time series analysis method, using smooth analysis, cointegration, vector autoregression model, impulse response function, variance decomposition, import and export trade to economic growth and empirical analysis of the quantitative relationship. On this basis, the analysis of empirical results, summarize the financial crisis on the import and export of Qingdao, the relationship between economic growth and the true impact of the two. Combined with having been changed economic situation, make appropriate policy recommendations.First, an overview of international trade theory, economic growth theory and the relationship between them. The theoretical issues elaborated under study will lead the model. Second, to analyze how the financial crisis on the import and export trade in Qingdao and in China. Form by the macroeconomic, the overall economic performance of particular conditions in the foreign trade situation in post-crisis changes in an overview of the financial crisis on the designed range. Third, the combination of the two parts before the theoretical and practical conditions, to analyze the relationship of the economic growth and international trade making use of Qingdao Economic and operation data by unit root test, cointegration analysis, vector auto regression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition.Finally, come to the conclusion that the financial crisis has changed the relationship between exports and economic growth. The crisis has changed the effect on economic growth size by changing the short and long term impact of export promotion on GDP. Meanwhile to analyzes impact of the exchange rate and the main import and export trade and the country's GDP on GDP of Qingdao, on the short and long term. Then problems of policy recommendations are given.