| The background of this article is based on the high valuations phenomenon in Chinese GEM since it opened on October 30,2009. Our purpose is that through summary, analysis, and reasoning, giving the high valuations a reasonable explanation, judging the investment value of GEM in China, and providing reference valuations for our investors. This is the main methods used by the paper, such as summarized, comparative analysis, and the normative research. On the basis of GEM valuation methods of high-tech companies and overseas, experiences, and also the China's actual situation, finally some valuation results were concluded.From the perspective of the content, in the first part of the preface, the purpose and meaning of the subject, the subject's research status, research methods and frame were explained respectively;Secondly, started from the idea of value investment, the paper defines the research scope which is the value evaluation method, reviews the development of value investment divided into four phases, origin, evolution, sublimation and variation. And effective market hypothesis, which is the basis of value investment, was discussed. Through the analysis of the value investment, we pointed out that its application key is to find the valuation model, and the model's basic parameters estimated accurately. Then this paper summarizes the general and GEM's valuation methods respectively. On one hand, absolute valuation model method includes the dividend discount model, free-cash flow discount model, residual income evaluation model, Feltham-Olson model, the real option method etc. On the other hand, relative valuation model includes Price Earning ratio, Price Book value ratio, Price Cash ratio, Price Sales ratio, and PEG etc. And we also reviewed various models'merit and demerit applicably, concluded three characteristics about the change of stock valuation:First, the dividend policy from related to nothing; Second, the valuation method from simple to complex; Third, the valuation period from multiple to single.Again, according to a research of valuation levels of overseas GEM in 1997-2009, some quantitative value features of PE were found:First, the mature GEM'average PE was higher than the emerging markets'; Second, the emerging markets'PE is different from one to another; Third, the main board and GEM's PE existed much differences in the same area, and it was embodied much obvious in the emerging market. Besides, in the aspects of PE fluctuation we can find:First, the fluctuating range of PE in overseas GEM is greater than its main board; Second, overseas GEM exist significant difference in fluctuant coefficients; Third, overseas GEM were not completely consistent in the direction of fluctuation, but in the same area main board and second-board market presented convergence; Fourth, the differences between overseas GEM is obvious in the fluctuation frequency; Fifth, overseas GEM were different in band length. For the industry characteristics of PE, we can find:first of all, in the same samples the PE value are different obviously. Second, in the high-tech fields, between different gem market the same industry PE value were much different; Third, differences of PE between the main board and gem market in the same region value of the PE industry differences. In the comparative study of the reciprocal of PE and interest earnings, we found that the United States and Taiwan's GEM investors won an excess return in most of years, but this disappeared in Hong Kong and Korea GEM.Then, the paper focused to Chinese GEM valuations. The first problem is the analysis of the affecting factors, including regulatory concept, retreat city system, resuming pressure, corporate governance structure, valuations idea, etc., which do have distinct Chinese characteristics. Then from the perspective of PE, one figure in Chinese GEM was reviewed since it opened nearly a year, which can be divided into three stages, namely crazy period, calm period, differentiation period. Then compared the NASDAQ with Chinese GEM companies, we pointed out the industry distribution characteristics of the GEM companies. Then the valuation method of PE and PB were applied respectively in Chinese GEM, compared with the Chinese GEM companies at home and abroad, believed that the home companies'valuations were highly above abroad levels. Finally using correction method of sample company valuations*peg, selected the current stocks may underestimate or overvalued.Finally, we concluded that China's GEM market valuation was overestimated, in future it will gradually to the medium value, but some companies are near the central part of the growth and value currently. In addition, we also pointed out the stock valuation is not only scientific but artistic characteristics, and any result calculated by data and model is only for reference, because valuations still depend on the person's experience, psychology and changes of thinking, and these can not be measured by one model. |
PDF Full Text Request