| Since 1992, China began the commercialization of housing reform, China's real estate have a rapid developing, residential real estate investments and sales for the proportion of GDP was increasing year by year. Associated with this,housing prices are also at a rapid increase.Because income growth rate less than housing price growth rate, "difficult to buy a house" attract a lot of people concerned about high prices, so the formation of the house price become very necessary. This paper analyzes the significance of the real estate industry to the national economy and its role in promoting related industries. And that over-development of real estate may be squeeze consumption and possibility lead to other industries can not get adequate funding. And housing prices continue rising Increase the risk of the real estate market.According to economic theory, prices depand supply and demand. In this paper, includ two aspects influencing housing prices, that is supply and demand factors. While the speculative element is introduced into the factors affecting demand in the past, and give two methods to quantify speculation. Study changes in house prices influence on consumption have Significance. This paper also introduces elements of income distribution. Gini coefficient is used to represent income distribution,in order to find whether the income distribution impact on residential housing prices.according the analyze on the supply and demand factors,make a function.if supply and demand balance,we can got the simple model of price of the residential real estate.use Stepwise regression method to screening and testing variable, Excluding a number of variables that do not exist causal relation.finally we can got the factors that affect house price is Urban population,speculative factors, disposable income, completion of the area and real estate investment. Income distribution does not affect the price of residential housing. China's final consumption rate showed a declining trend and the proportion of residents consumption in total consumption is also reduced. This article discusses the residential real estate price fluctuations on consumption as well as whether it will affect what kind of impact. According to the wealth effect theory. The change of asset values will cause corresponding changes in consumption. In west the wealth effect of real estate there are a lot of research, but there is no unified conclusion. Although China has the wealth effect of real estate research started late, but also with foreign research formed a similar conclusion. In this paper, the study based on traditional life cycle theory of consumption functiont to search whether the residential real estate have wealth effect, And increase in financial assets. The results show that changes in residential housing prices there is a significant wealth effect. It is a negative wealth effect. While the wealth effect of financial assets is also negative, and the absolute value of wealth effect is smaller than the absolute value of residential real estate wealth effect.Based on the above studies we can learn:the most important factor of affect the price of house is Urban population, followed are Speculative and Disposable income. Residential real estate prices have a negative impact on consumption, In the long-term financial assets also has a negative wealth effect.This innovation is the introduction of the speculative element to the impact of the residential real estate prices,and defined a method of speculative. Also confirmed that income distribution had no effect on the residential real estate prices. Residential real estate assets have a negative wealth effect. |
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