| With the expansion of openness among the countries, economic development between countries is uneven because of trade imbalances, credit and debt imbalances, imbalance of payments, imbalance of investment and so forth. A country's currency will appreciate or depreciate facing very more complex choice than that of before. Not only a country's currency and the currencies of other countries face the new changes, but also directions of changes will be subject to external pressure.Since the reform and opening policy, trade between China and US is developing rapidly. On July 21,2005 China's financial reform made substantial progress, the national economy maintained steady and rapid growth, China's RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reformed. China began implementing managed floating exchange rate system in which RMB exchange rate is decided on the basis of market supply and demand and it refers to a basket of currencies. Since the exchange rate reform, RMB has remained slow trend of appreciation.But in recent years, with the expansion of Sino-US trade surplus, trade friction between China and America is also growing. One of the performances of trade friction is the United States thinking of RMB undervalued and declaring that Chinese government should raise the value of RMB with a big amount just in one night. US manufacturers'reason is the Chinese government buys a large number of annual foreign exchange and manipulates exchange rate of RMB to gain export advantage which violate WTO rules and China's commitment to the IMF.In 2009, after China replacing Germany as the world's biggest export country, the wars of words on the RMB exchange rate frequently appeared in newspapers along with whether the United States would announce or not to define China as a so-called "currency manipulator", and the exchange rate of the dispute escalated once again. On March 15,2010,130 members of Congress sent a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary and secretary of commerce requiring to designate China as a "currency manipulator", and "to fight back."The gap between RMB value and the International Monetary does need to be adjusted accordingly. However, if the short-term adjustment was too large or the frequency was too high, it would bring in adverse effects on exports, investments and other economic developments. For example, if the rate of appreciation of the RMB is too large, export enterprises are difficult to adapt to the new economic situation. And the situation of foreign trade is prone to ups and downs; the RMB appreciation raised costs of foreign investment too much or too fast, it would also dampen the enthusiasm of foreign investment. Excessive appreciation of RMB or its frequent changes will also bring in confusion in the international currency markets, increasing speculation in the money market. Under the pressure of US push RMB to appreciate, the research on current RMB exchange rate issue on Sino-US trade and exposing the United State actions of unilateralism policy on exchange rate has significant meanings.This paper starts from analysis of the evolution of exchange rate policy to the analysis of the U.S. exchange rate system, thus reveals American selfish unilateral exchange rate policy in a deeper dimension. After that we talk about the status of Sino-US trade, problems of Sino-US trade and why US pays so much attention on the RMB exchange rate and it analyzes how the different approaches of exchange rate appreciation impact Sino-US trade which shows appreciation of the RMB can not fundamentally resolve the economic problems of America. It also stresses that the U.S. unilateral measures would bring bad effects on Sino-US trade and some other aspects. Finally I put forward some measures that China should take to settle the pressure of U.S. pushing the RMB exchange rate.This paper is divided into six parts.First, we introduce the problem of China facing the pressure of RMB appreciation, and it briefly discusses the source of the pressure of RMB appreciation. Then, this paper introduces the historical development of the international monetary system, in which the United States has been playing acts of unilateralism manipulation of the world currency. Thus form the analysis we can get the nature of the U.S. exchange rate policy.In July 1944, the representatives of the United States, Britain, the Soviet Union, France and other representatives of 44 countries met at Britton Woods in New Hampshire in the United States. The conference is called "United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference", also known as "Britton Woods", which established the international exchange rate system of Britton Woods system. From the collapse of the international gold standard to the establishment of the Britton Woods system, the United States played a major role in establishing the dollar as the base currency of the international gold exchange standard, and the establishment made the dollar with the color of very egoism and unilateralism. And it provides favorable international conditions for the United States to take control of the system of international exchange rate and manipulate the dollar exchange rate. Any of the international monetary system change after the Britton Woods system is signed under the interests of the United States in its unilateral drive using the special status of international currency dollar. Once the development of the international monetary system is not conducive to U.S. interests, the United States will attack or even force the change of the international monetary system even to the exchange rate policies of the other countries.Second, this paper tends to analyze why the United States began eyeing the RMB exchange rate. After analyzing the current situation of Sino-US trade and economic and political situation of the United States, it comes to the root causes of the United States pressing the appreciation of RMB. First, from the perspective of the economy, after the 2008 world economic crisis, government decision makers in the United States did not find effective measures to solve economic problems such as slow growth of the U.S. economy, the domestic unemployment rate and the U.S. trade deficit against China. So they take it for granted that RMB sharp appreciation can solve the problems of US economy. Second, from the perspective of the political level, the U.S. politicians can not solve domestic economic problems and they use RMB appreciation to transfer the focus of domestic public that they can not solve on domestic issues. In addition, the election is approaching. The American policy makers did not get a lot of achievements to support themselves, so they hope to use the RMB appreciation issue to revalue their votes.Subsequently, this article will analyze various aspects of the unilateral U.S. exchange rate policy that can not solve U.S. problems. Exchange rate policy is a manifestation of a country's monetary policy, and China will not allow the united States deliberately manipulate this issue. And the reason for the U.S. trade deficit is not caused by the RMB value. There are some deeper reasons which are mainly reflected in the structure of Sino-US trade goods.There is no conclusive evidence to prove that RMB is undervalued. A lot of thesis that say RMB is undervalued by many economists and scholars are calculated through certain economic model. We do not want to discuss the economic models are correct or not. We can say that any economic model is based on certain theoretical assumptions. And the international economic situation are changing rapidly, many premises for these economic models have been changed. Thus nobody could tell that the RMB must have been underestimated. The results from these kinds of model can be used to publish some papers, but they can not be used as the determinant of a country's economy. Any expert in the world has different ideas and positions on every issue of the RMB. But the China knows their economic development and problems and how to make a decision.Slight appreciation of the RMB will not have a big impact on import and export volume of China-US trade, and the small appreciation of the RMB on the contrary can promote the upgrade of the industrial structure of Sino-US trade, thus it is beneficial to the development of Sino-US trade. On the basis of analysis of Sino-US trade product structure and impact of RMB appreciation has on Sino-US trade, the paper also takes an example of 70's further appreciation of the yen appreciation that brought huge disaster to Japanese economy but not solve the economic problems of the United States.Although the RMB itself will not appreciate sharply just under the pressure of the US, the U.S. unilateral exchange rate policy against RMB will have a significant impact on Sino-US relations. China is the largest developing country and America is the largest developed country in the world, the importance of Sino-US relations is self-evident. Maintenance of this relationship between the two countries is important to both countries and to the world in terms of economic development and the world peace. But the Sino-US relations are not without flaws, but many problems exist on the contrary. The United State interfered in China on many international political issues such as long-standing problem of Taiwan, standing in the side of Japan in the Diaoyu islands issue recently as well as the worsening of RMB exchange rate issue, and therefore we can not rule out the possibility of a complete break with the United States. In trade, China-US trade friction has been existed for a long time, the RMB exchange rate issue is bound to worsen Sino-US trade this time, and even bring a comprehensive long-term trade war.Government should grasp the trend of the international economic environment to adjust economic and trade development strategies and to prevent the possible outbreak of trade friction. From the perspective of enterprises, enterprises should become more familiar with China's WTO dispute settlement mechanism and to master the rules of WTO dispute settlement mechanism in order to curb a trade war even to be ready to win a trade war. There is a generally accepted truth in today's world:no permanent enemies or no permanent friends, the only eternal thing is interest. In recent years, U.S. multinationals investment in China is speeding up aiming at taking advantage of the intellectual resources of China's cheap labor resources. These huge business interests have vital importance to some industries and companies of the United States. These growing interest groups will be economic resources and political resources that China can make full use of.Finally, the paper comes up with countermeasures to ease the pressure of RMB appreciation of US in order to resist the unilateral exchange rate policy by taking the Sino-US trade situation into consideration. RMB exchange rate issue is China's currency policy, and the issue is China's sovereignty and China can not bow to U.S. pressure but to achieve independence. To adopt the managed floating exchange rate system is still our choice. And China should accelerate the pace of currency reform according to the specific form of economic development. In addition the Bank of China should increase diversity in the selection and use of foreign exchange reserves not only for large reserves in U.S. dollars. In RMB exchange rate policy we should strengthen the dynamic stability of the RMB exchange rate. In June 2010, the Ministry of Finance announced to enlarge the flexibility of the RMB float, which has played an important role in alleviating the pressure of RMB appreciation. Of course, continuing to deepen reform of RMB exchange rate system is the most crucial, not only make adjustments on the RMB exchange rate policy in accordance with China's economic situation but also hit back the countries that have accused China of manipulating its currency. |
PDF Full Text Request