Research On Northwest Listed Company Financial Crisis Prewarning Model

Along with the global economy development, countries pay more and more attention to their health for enterprise sustainable development. Since 1932, foreign scholars began launched on the listed company or private enterprise financial crisis prewarning model research, from univariate warning model of development to the current with artificial intelligence and discriminant rate higher pre-alarming model. Although our country's financial crisis prewarning model research later than abroad, but research results can reach the advanced level. Regarding the enterprise, especially the listed company's financial crisis warning research, many experts and scholars from different angles on such questions carried out in-depth research. Among them from one profession characteristic set to study, establishing belongs to the industry's financial prewarning model, also became the industry financial crisis warning one of the important methods.'And in all manufacturing companies hold most of share, profession characteristic obvious, the research results more mature. Therefore, this paper on the basis of industry research, based on the northwest of practical significance, established the northwest region of the listed company manufacturing a financial crisis prewarning model for financial crisis do early detection early prevention, early solve fundamentally resolve northwest manufacturing of the listed company development bottleneck, become drive northwest development solid momentum.This paper first of domestic and foreign scholars of enterprise financial crisis warning research conducted a detailed review, and various warning model the disadvantages of comparative analysis, Secondly, the primary index variables through certain technical analysis, screening out warning index variables, established contains financial index and non-financial indicators of early-warning index system, Then, this paper selects the northwest 63 home manufacturing listed company four-session early-warning index variables, first of BP neural network and gray prediction effect validation, through testing model become namely northwest manufacturing listed company financial crisis prewarning model. Finally, the grey prediction system predict northwest 63 manufacturing listed company next warning index variables, the generation into the course examines the BP neural network model, came to the next financial situation to carry on the crisis warning, and compares with the current information, complete the model's warning and forecasting effect of actual inspection. Research suggests that the following important conclusions:(1) using northwest manufacturing listed companies the financial statements of the data to set up the BP neural network financial crisis prewarning model is feasible; (2) by the grey system theory predict northwest manufacturing listed company financial crisis is effective, and the result is quite satisfied, can serve as northwest manufacturing listed companies, financial crisis prewarning, financial crisis prevention one of the important methods.