Microscopic Study On Business Cycle Of Real Estate

Real estate is one of the most basic livelihood human survival and development of,it is also one of important measurements of the level of a country's economy and living standards. The cyclical volatility of real estate market is a worldwide phenomenon, the analysis of the important factors affecting the real estate volatility has become a core issue of Real Estate Research. In China, there is currently little research for the real estate cycle.The study has been mostly concentrated in the industry study, but the behavioral economics research in the real estate cycle is still small. However, the emergence of behavioral economics provides a new direction to the study of real estate. We know that economic problems should be back to the origin of the economy, as the market micro structure,that is the people--precisely--it is their psychological and behavior.This paper consists of six parts:The first chapter explains the background of this topic, significance, innovation, and difficult, and reviews previous studies; in the second chapter,the property definition,principles and causes of the economic cycle were detailed explained and descript; in the third chapter we discuss the main factors that affect the micro real estate; in the chapter four,we introduces the behavioral economics, behavioral economics describes the basic theory, analysis methods and analysis application, focus on explaining the framework and contents of behavioral economics, and explained the main body of the real estate decision-making micro to macro arguments; in chapter five,we take shanghai real estate market as target,carring out empirical research, analysis the relationship of income volatility and price fluctuations between price change and trading volume.Due to data limitations, this empirical study can not be a standard measurement test, it can only provide some quantitative evidence. In the final section,we summarizes the behavior of the real estate transaction characteristics and the relationship between volatility and future development trend of the real estate industry.