An Empirical Analysis Based On Multi-classification Logistic Regression Model To The Types Of Accounting Fraud

Accounting fraud, accounting information is deceiving users or users of financial reports, investors and creditors, in particular the deliberate misstatements, extended the amount of disclosure or omission. Efficient operation of capital markets and health functioning depends largely on the market received the quality of accounting information, such information is unreliable and will directly lead to the invalidity of the capital market and the sick. Public Company Accounting fraud abroad has aroused wide concern, such as Enron, Xerox, WorldCom, Parmalat and other fraud occurred, each occurrence of fraud are affecting people's nerves. It is estimated that all types of companies in the U.S. alone, the organization's annual losses due to fraud arising from at least more than 400 billion U.S. dollars, the average fraud per year to each company brought to its report the loss of about 6% of total revenue. Compared to foreign circumstances, with the recent rapid development of domestic capital markets, listed companies are becoming increasingly obvious fraud, among which is particularly serious accounting fraud. For the domestic cases of fraud that occurred before, such as Guangxia, Zhengbaiwen so often in the company of fraud the company some serious system problems. So in addition to the financial level, find the system of corporate governance structure and organization of the risk factors accounting fraud increasingly become the focus of attention. Therefore, the discovery of accounting fraud patterns and recognition of accounting fraud on economic growth and national prosperity is critical to study the problem of great practical significance.In this paper, from 1994 to 2009 issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission Web site modeled on accounting fraud penalty notice, selected from 189 acts of accounting fraud occurred in the company and the size of the company with the fraud is similar to the type of industry is not the same company for fraud paired together as the object of study, a total of 378 study samples. And the use of different accounting and corporate governance indicators and targets a different type of company accounting fraud more than classification and regression, to study the occurrence of fraud and related factors of motivation, using descriptive statistics and empirical research methods to identify indicators of the Public Company Accounting and Corporate Governance Index and the relationship between accounting fraud, corporate executives who contribute to our understanding the causes of accounting fraud, external audit and internal management of the help.On different indicators of corporate governance and accounting data and the regression analysis of the explanatory variables and the relationship between the explanatory variables. In this paper the following conclusions:1. A business within the state shares and tradable shares to whether the ratio has an important influence accounting fraud occurred. It seems from the regression results, the proportion of state-owned shares within the enterprise the greater the proportion of outstanding shares of smaller companies more prone to fraud. Therefore, the state has adopted in recent years, the share-trading reform can play a role in containing accounting fraud.2. Shareholding balance degree and accounting fraud related to the severity of the negative. Corporate equity is too concentrated in the hands of a few, often not conducive to business development and growth, equity should be divided equally among the hands of minority shareholders, so that both the mutual inhibition between the shareholders, mutual supervision, to effectively curb the occurrence of accounting fraud.3. Assets, net interest margin and accounting fraud related to the severity of the negative. Of a business to radically curb the occurrence of accounting fraud, only through the effective management, and constantly improve all aspects of business, reasonable and legitimate enterprise assets, net profit margin improved to enable enterprises to continuously strengthen profitability in order to reduce accounting fraud occurred.4. Selling expense ratio and accounting fraud during the severity of negative correlation. Business sales during the high and low expense ratio reflects the management is efficient, whether low cost. Sales through the accounting period to reduce the cost of fraud can only bring short-term interest rate is not conducive to the future development of enterprises. Another through the effective management and cost control in order to fundamentally reduce the cost of sales during the period rate.5. Big Shareholders and the severity of the accounting fraud are related. Big Shareholders will be emptied for the effects of serious business, the interests of minority shareholders erosion, impact on the enterprise's future development. Only by strictly monitoring and controlling shareholders can use the money to fundamentally inhibit the Big Shareholders line.