Empirical Research On The Impact Of Asset Bubbles On Dynamic Efficiency

The issue of dynamic efficiency is the core to research on capital accumulation and economic growth. It mainly analyse the problem of resource intertemporal optimization. It is related to the welfare level of individuals and the economic development direction. However, with the development of virtual economy, the capital is flowing between real economy and virtual economy. The impact of asset bubbles on dynamic efficiency has been concerned. Therefore, the study of dynamic efficiency is not only useful to broaden the research perspective of economic growth theory, but also in reality this analysis method to merge asset bubbles into dynamic efficiency is useful to improve the economic growth model and to optimize macroeconomic policy choices.In the context of studying in the theory of economic growth and dynamic efficiency, this paper considers the financial asset bubbles to be the research object and use a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis to conduct a systematic study about the comprehensive situation of China's dynamic efficiency under the new condition.The paper is divided into four chapters, whose main contents are as follows:The first chapter is the theory of dynamic efficiency and empirical research review. It reviews the theoretical basis and development process of dynamic efficiency. Then analyse the AMSZ criterion and the relationship between asset bubbles and dynamic efficiency. Systematically summarize the empirical research of the past. The second chapter is a measure of dynamic efficiency. It has two parts. First, through analyse the investment rate, regression coefficient of investment to GDP and capital profitability of our country to measure dynamic efficiency. Second, use AMSZ criterion, cointegration test, error correction model and other quantitative analysis methods to determine the dynamic efficiency of China's economy from 1990 to 2008.The third chapter is an empirical study about the impact of asset bubbles on dynamic efficiency. The chapter on the basis of defining asset bubbles, respectively use K-Coefficient of Marshall and FIR as the measure of asset bubbles. Then use the annual data from 1990 to 2008 and some quantitative analysis methods, such as cointegration, to make an empirical research of the relevance between asset bubbles and dynamic efficiency.The fourth chapter is the integrated estimation of China's dynamic efficiency and paths for improvement. On the basis of combining the theoretical analysis with the empirical results, analyse and discuss the issue of China's dynamic efficiency and the impact of asset bubbles on dynamic efficiency in depth. Then make a comprehensive evaluation at last. Finally, the paper aims the reason that leads to dynamically inefficient of China's economy, and with the objective situation of China's economy, put forward some effective paths of improvement and the policy orientation.The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follow: Firstly, the total capital investment and investment rate of our country has increased year by year. But the contribution rate of the investment to GDP growth tends to decline. And compare with the China's rapid economic growth, the capital profitability has shown a trend of relatively slow. Secondly, the dynamic efficiency of China's economy from 1990 to 2008 is dynamically inefficient and that there is a certain level of capital accumulation excessively. Thirdly, there is a high correlation between asset bubbles and dynamic efficiency. To a certain extent, rational asset bubbles have positive influence to dynamic efficiency.