Credit Risk Management Of The Commercial Bank On The Basis Of Financial Crisis Forewarning Model

Since 1980s, the process of financial liberalization and globalization has gone deeper and deeper and the range of the world macro-economics and financial market has been more and more fluctuated. The credit risk of commercial banks has also been enlarged side by side with it. Under the flamework of the world finanicial market, China's commercial banks appear their weakness in foundation, and the poor managerial techniques in dealing with financial risks. Facing the complicated and changable financial situations, the credit fund of China's commercial banks would be threatened seriously. The risk has been one of important risks which the commercial banks have to meet with, but the extent of this risk control is closely related to the level of managements. Therefore, China's commercial banks are urgent to study the overseas advanced experience of credit risk managements combining with the successful experience of its own, to promote the power of management rapidly, to realize the steady development. In this background, the paper study the financial crisis forewarning model which is utilized in the credit risk management of commercial banks, so as to promote the credit risk management ability.In this study, the financial crisis forewarning model is utilized in the credit risk management of commercial banks, and its own rules, so as to promote the credit risk management level. Through the revision and summary on the commercial bank credit risk and financial crisis forewarning theory at home and abroad. This study can be used to examine current situation of China's credit risk management, to explore the feasiblility of the financial crisis forewarning model in the management of the credit risk. At the same time, it can be used to combine with the reality in China and build a research framework of the credit risk management, which is based on the financial crisis forewarning model, and to propose the corresponding research suggestions.Through the literature search and statistics, hundreds of listed company's financial annual reports are selected, from which 220 listed are analyzed as the research samples, consoliding 19 financial indicators and 3 non-financial indicators. Through utilizing, the SPSS13.0 statistical software carries on the factorial analysis to the forewarning indicator, 9 main factors entering the model construction. Finally, the use of logistic regression analysis confirms that the effectiveness of the financial crisis forewarning model prevents the credit risk. Through empirical research and theoretical study, the paper concludes three points:(1)Enterprise credit capacity, growth capacity, profit capacity, cash flow capacity and operating capacity all have obvious influences on the financial situations of enterprises;(2) Due to the introduction of the three non-financial indicators of enterprise scale, its jurisdiction and the concentration degree of stockholder's rights, the accuracy of predicting crises is enhanced;(3) The scale and its jurisdiction of the enterprise has manifest influences on the forewarning, while the concentration degree of stockholder's rights do not have any marked influence on the long-term forewarning.This paper mainly probes into the effects of using the financial crisis forewarning model to manage the commercial bank credit risk. Through data analysis and empirical study, the total percentage of forecast samples achieves 86.9%, explaining that the use of the model has a better predictive effect, which can be used to provide the effective reference for the commercial bank credit department in the decision-making.