An Empirical Study Of The Stock Market Bubble In China Based On Mixed Rational Speculation Theory

The stock market has existed for hundreds of years in human history since the early 16th century.It has always been regarded as macro-economic "barometer" .It is also the major birthplace of the economic bubble. In the academic community the stock market has always been considered an "angel and devil "body. It not only has the function to promote economic growth, enhance economic efficiency and optimize resource allocation, but also can cause instant wealth accumulation and disappearance.The mid-eighty about "the market" whether the hot discussion, scholars began to focus on whether the stock market bubble problems, and so on each related research put forward many foam theory and model. One has a far-reaching influence significance of representative theory is mainly: nonlinear foam theory, rational speculative bubbles theory, based on the theory of speculative bubbles, irrational information theory and the theory of foam theory, the bubble burst, the development of until all put forward corresponding methods of card. Mix in the theory of rational speculative theoretical research and development on the basis of the research, gradually become the main stockmarket bubbles. Based on the basis of research achievements at home and abroad, according to the mix design of a rational speculative theoretical model of the stock market bubble. The theoretical analysis and empirical research method of combining research, re-examine the human factors on the stock market, the stock market bubble and rational speculative trading and unreason will clear comprehensive consideration of the speculation, the difference between the continuous research and the inevitable, the mutual influence between.Through an empirical research conclusion, China's stock markets in the rational speculative trading and irrational speculative trading has long-term coexistence. Under the condition of market effectively in the rational speculative trading far outweigh the irrational speculative trading on stock market bubble, stock market bubble in a relatively reasonable level control interval;When the market affected by various factors, irrational failure interference with the market speculation, make rational speculative trading lost control of the stock market bubble, bubble expanding capacity until burst. According to the research results of China's stock market, combining the development present situation, proposed the healthy development of Chinese stock market on rationalization proposals, with preventing financial risks to dissolve has certain practical significance and the practical reference value.Chinese stock market in two decades got a lot of achievements, In the optimized allocation of resources, social support business development provides a powerful force. But the market volatility is rising to socialist market economy brings a lot of negative effects, suggesting that Chinese stock market system needs to be further strengthened. According to this study, and puts forward some conclusions about the healthy development of China's stock market to dissolve the rationalization proposals, and guard against financial risk, has certain practical significance and the practical reference value.