Analysis And Forecast Of Manufacturing Company's Production Capacity Based On Artificial Neural Network

Forecast and estimation of production capacity are very important to a manufacturing company, and allows the company to accept orders confidently without fear of delay in delivery. Also, orders will not be lost due to underestimation of production capacity, when the manufactory is running, its production capacity will be easily affected by variants in some related factors, for instance, productivity changes when the manpower quantity and turnover differs, production speed changes when yield changes, total productive man hour changes when overtime hour changes.Forecast is a very important application area of Artificial Neural Network; Artificial Neural Network has obvious advantages in forecasting compared with any other traditional methods.Based on the data of one certain company's manpower quantity and turnover, process yield and working hours during the pried Jan-2010 to Aug-2010,this paper forecasts the production capacity for Sep-2010 of this company with the help of General Regression Neural Network.Finally, compare the forecast result with the real data of Sep-2010 to check the accuracy of this forecast, and this paper succeeded in getting the forecast result of the production capacity for Sep-2010 as 2.6556 million articles by analyzing the above factors, structuring a proper Artificial Neural Network and having this network trained with some historical data via the MATLAB.The real production capacity for Sep-2010 was 2.8211 million articles, thus, the margin of error is approximately 3.98%. Considering that the factors which affect the production capacity varies beyond regulation, this outcome out is still acceptable and this forecast satisfactory. It also shows the actual value of the Artificial Neural Network in its application area.