Research Of Relative Labor Productivity Change Impact On RMB Exchange Rate

With China's market economic development thoroughly, that cannot be ignored,improving exchange rate system become the major issue. In open economies country, as the regulatory measures of macroeconomic, exchange-rate policy plays an important role in the equilibrium of domestic product market and foreign market. The outbreaks of global economic crisis, countries thought its interests always come first, and alternate approaches and ways and means for its pressure through the exchange rate, expect to earn a kingdom rate conditions to its economic development. China recently, as one of the world's biggest exporter, the exchange rate of the dispute is continued. But the appreciation of RMB cannot blindly, it should be remain consistent in rational scope with the real exchange rates.In this context, further study gradient of the labor productivity influence on the real RMB rate and it is of extreme theoretical and practical significance to healthy and stable development domestic and international markets.In the process of Chinese government adjust policy about the exchange rate in which it always high attention. At the same time of the economic gradually opening, the RMB is also showing step revaluation stability. However, money as to the wealth value measure in the development of economy and it will not long way from their real value, otherwise it would cause major impact on the real economy. It should be maintain a reasonable level with the premise of their national conditions.Starting from the theory of comparative advantage, this paper briefly reviewed the previous scholars both at home and abroad for the research of labor productivity and exchange by the viewpoint of Samuelson about labor productivity effect to the real exchange rate. On this basis, we mainly introduces "Harrod-Balasss effect", which about relative change of structured labor productivity index influent on real rates. But there lots of evidence indicate that, The development of China's economy have not the foundation of realistic economic conditions that apply structured productivity index to analyse real rates, and it have reflected in most literature.In the index selection, this paper argues that total type indexes could better explain the realistic situation of China's economic. Then imitate the microcosmic derived of "Harrod-Balasss effect" to total quantity type of labor productivity index's relative change that affect real exchange rate.In the research method, is mainly to adopt empirical analysis method, after the model is built, this test from two levels:First, using panel data of OECD countries to test model and after using method of Hausman determined fixed effects models, we discovered that total quantity type of labor productivity index's relative change can well embodied the change of OECD real rates. Second, by means of the existing model to test situation between China and American, find it necessary to perform some of the adjustment. As a result of the "relative unlimited supply" of China's labor market, the important link of the whole theory conduction-the wage level have changes, and it difficult to accord with model's establishment. So according to the special economic relations of china-American, we introduce the amount of money supply and the dollar reserve as supplementary variable. We re-design the model using time series data and test it, then found that RMB exchange rate fluctuation is main forward influence with relative changes of labor productivity, and the amount of money supply and the dollar reserve is backward.Then at last, this paper conducted Economic theory analysis on the basis of the empirical test and puts forward the related Policy recommendations.