The Research On The Supply Chain Inventory Of The Forestry Industry Based On The Theory And Method Of System Dynamics

Currently, China forestry is lied to a key period when it will transit traditional forestry to modern forestry. And China forestry products industry is also lied to a rapid developing period. However, forestry logistics research is a current weak point in logistics research field. So it is a significant meaning that strengthens forestry logistics research.Nowadays, as the quantities of forestry products enterprise become more and more, the competition among enterprises become increasingly fierce. In addition, the effect of the development on the research and application of wood substitute intensifies the degree of market competition, customer requirement also presents the following characteristics such as uncertain, multiform and dynamic, and its character makes many enterprises have to confront with survival test. Thus, how to make forestry products enterprises keep developing in the market plight is a pop issue to the enterprise executives and research scholars.Supply chain management that is an advanced managing technology enters the researchers'studying view. So, in this paper, the main research object is the inventory control pattern of forestry products industry. And this paper is based on the theory of System Dynamics and the method of designing S.D model.In the beginning of this thesis, the author introduces related theory of S.D briefly and dissertates the feasibility that people apply S.D to solve the problem about inventory control in supply chain. Then, firstly, from macro hiberarchy of research problem, the author analyzes the market survival circumstance, namely the relationship between supply and demand on timber, then forecasts the change trends among supply, demand and price. Finally, under the background of macro environment, from micro hiberarchy of research problem, the author studies deeply the main body of forestry products industry, namely wood processing enterprises, analyzes their operation circumstance, then, builds the dynamic models of customer managed inventory and vendor managed inventory and uses two models to simulate real enterprise operation in the different requirement scenes and compare the difference of enterprises'inventory effect between CMI and VMI.In the aspect of the method of building models, the author adopt the method of System dynamics to make models in this paper to differentiate from traditional pure mathematical models. Through building system flow map, the internal structures of inventory system become clearer than traditional mathematical method. And correlation and interaction of each factor become more clear. It avoids that people pursue result optimization to neglect the property of system integer. Then use statistical and experiential method to quantify each causal factor and build equations of System Dynamics. Operate models and test their validity. Finally, simulate inventory system and analyze the circulating results.To apply the basic principle and method of S.D to research and simulate inventory control pattern of forestry products industry supply chain, the author expects to acquire a new research routine of forestry logistics.The understanding of logistics in Forestry is a process of continuous in-depth understanding, forestry logistics system itself is a process of continuous self-improvement, so forestry logistics, especially for rural forestry logistics needs to be further in-depth study.