Analysis On The Guarantee Risk Of The Listed Company In China

Guarantee is originally a normal economic phenomenon, which is a necessary economic and legal mean to overcome the information asymmetry in the process of economic operation. Recently, with the growing number of guarantee done by listed companies, the problems are increasingly serious, and the risk came from guarantee is taken into attention by the securities regulatory, creditors, the majority of investors. These are hot to regulators to solve to, which are what problems exist, the risk lead to, how to prevent and reduce the risk and how to help enterprise to resolve the crisis.This paper studies the motives of the listed companies to guarantee and the impact to the value of companies, which is based on the detailed overview of the theory and the case of corporate governance. Meanwhile, in order to further reveal the listed companies'guarantee risk, it selects the actual data of Chinese regulatory system and the listed companies to summary and analysis the situation and the characteristics of guarantee, which respectively regards the guarantee indicators and financial indicators as impact variables and control variables, uses Logit Regression Model to the probability of the loss of guarantee. The results show that the coefficients of guarantee is greater than zero, that is the greater proportion of bad guarantee accounted for, the greater probability of the risk faced by companies; the greater proportion of the total guarantee accounted for the net asset, the greater probability of the risk faced by companies; and the coefficients of the bad accounted for the total guarantee are all greater than the coefficients of the total guarantee accounted for the net asset, which indicate the bad guarantee is easier to lead the financial risk, that is, in order to reduce the probability of the financial risk, the companies providing guarantee should control the size of guarantee and decrease the bad guarantee. On the financial indicates, there is a positive relation between assets and liabilities, company size and the financial distress, the probability of financial distress increases with assets and liabilities, company size, which meant that over-reliance on corporate loans and corporate bonds to finance or excessive scale would make the possibility of financial distress increased; there is a negative relation between the current ratio, total asset turnover and net income per share and the financial distress, the probability of financial distress decreases with the current ratio, total asset turnover and net income per share, which meant that the improvement of the company liquidity and business operations can reduce the possibility of the risk facing in financial distress. Finally, on the basis of the existing problems of the listed companies to guarantee, it provides the policy to control the risk.