| China is a country with a large population. The Chinese people have formed the habit of preference for pork for a long history. This can not be changed shortly. The fluctuation of pork price affects the income of the majority of the farmers, and also touches the hearts of the urban residents. The changes in the pork price can result from demand and people's livelihood and it can affect people's livelihood vice versa. It is known as the giant of the price in agricultural products. What'more, it has an influence on the price of livestock products, forage and grain, even can result in inflation. The analysis of the factors on the rising price of the pork is significant in improving people's daily life, solving the current hot topic—"issues of agriculture, farmer and rural area"and the development of agricultural policy.The paper covered theory and development of the fluctuation of agricultural products price. It studied the factors which affect the pork price and the effect of the price fluctuation on society. It analyses the objective existence which affect modern pig industry.In this paper, In order to avoid"Divergence cobweb", and to reduce the number of pork price fluctuations, and to reduce the intensity of these fluctuations in the price of pork principles, the author have mainly finished the following several important tasks:In this paper, two aspects from the macro and micro analysis for the price of pork, meanwhile, time series analysis, gray neural network to predict future this two kinds of model of the price of pork, analysis and data obtained than what the precision of the model higher this conclusion.According to the previous academic research pork price fluctuations only focused on one of the factors on something this one characteristic, the paper uses web model, time series analysis, gray neural network model to have an analysis on the macro and micro perspective the variation rule about pork prices to conduct a comprehensive of the pork prices to predict the future. And creates the condition to the comparison on precision behind.In this paper, we analysis the price of pork on both the macro and the micro. At the same time, we compare the data on time series analysis and the gray neural network model, and predict the future price of pork. At last, we obtained the accuracy of the model which is morehigh that conclusion.Based on the history of pork price fluctuations, we studies before based animal price analysis method, which reflects the comprehensive study of optimal price. For countries to develop long-term price regulation mechanism and early warning mechanism provides workable policy advice, but also for countries to low according to different regional family economy difficult targets and provide technical issue temporary subsidies students. In this paper, it provides practical suggestions for the state to develop long-time price control mechanism and warning system. |
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