The Study About The Reliability Of Earnings Forecasts And Its Influence Factors Of IPO Companies

At present, with the development of capital market, the improvement of the role of accounting information are more significantly. In order to reduce financing costs, meet the demand of information to investors, the company's responsibility for disclosure of information is growing. In addition to providing the information of mandatory disclosure, but also the voluntary disclosure of relevant information to investors. Earnings forecast information as a voluntary disclosure of information, investors and other stakeholders concern it very much. As a very important predictor of financial information, it's mainly used in the IPO area of China's stock market. To eliminate the impact of information asymmetry, many countries require public companies to disclose information on earnings forecast, to facilitate the investors and other stakeholders make rational economic decisions. Therefore, the information in the earnings forecast disclosure, how to fully protect the investors and other stakeholders, ensure the quality of earnings forecast information, improve its reliability, they have been the focus of the theorists and practitioners.In this paper, based on the company's data of 2001 to 2009 A share IPO in Shenzhen and Shanghai in China. Using descriptive analysis and explanatory analysis methods to study the disclosure status of the earnings forecast information and the influence factors of the reliability to profit forecast information. Through the describing analysis, we found that the will of the IPO companies to disclose earnings forecast information is not strong, and the reliability is not high. Disclosure situation presents profession characteristic. Auditor qualifications, listed references and organization of internal audit agency is set have no significant effect on the reliability of the earnings forecast information of IPO companies, however, the reliability of its earnings forecast disclosure which hired the top ten underwriters is greater than those companies which didn't hire the top ten underwriters, there are both chairman and general manager position also guarantee the reliability of the earnings forecasts information effectively. Both company size and stock price have negative correlation with reliability of the information disclosed, the proportion of independent directors has positive correlation with the reliability of the information disclosed. Measures for the Administration in 2006 makes the IPO companies'reliability of earnings estimates higher. Accounting standards experienced significant reform in 2007, because the implementation of new guidelines, the company has a certain adaptation period, making the reliability of profit forecast of IPO the company lower than before.The article is divided into six chapters: The first chapter is an introduction, describes the research background and motivation, meaning and purpose, briefly introduced the contents of the article and the method. The second chapter is literature review, analysis and comparison of Chinese and foreign scholars in terms of profit forecasts. The third chapter is the article's theoretical analysis and assumptions, based on the theoretical analysis, the underlying assumptions are made. Chapter IV is study design, in the analysis, see the absolute value of prediction error rate of profit as a measure of the reliability of indicators. In the descriptive analysis section, select four external factors: the industry, auditor qualification, the lead underwriter qualification, and two internal factors: whether the internal audit department has been set, general manager and chairman of the board is divided. Based on The six descriptive indicators, 70 sample companies are classified for comparative analysis. In the analysis section, select explanatory variables: profitability, asset-liability ratio, stock price, the proportion of independent directors, company size, company ownership concentration, and two dummy variables, and then establish the multiple regression model. Chapter V is the empirical results and analysis, making descriptive statistics and correlation analysis on the sample company data, the paper using multiple regression model to validated the assumption, and then make corresponding analysis. Chapter sixth chapter is conclusion. Summarize research conclusion and insufficient.