An Analysis On International Oil Market And China's Countermeasures

Oil ,as Blood of the modern industry, has a very important role in the national economy, it is not only one of the world's most important energy and oil as the raw materials processing a range of products is also the world's most important chemical materials. Since reform and opening up, China's economy maintained rapid development, the demanding for oil has been continued to grow。In 2010, China's demand for oil is about 405 million ton, but the supply can not afford the large demand, so the imports is very large. As the second largest oil consuming countries and importing countries of the world, China's oil dependence on foreign trade continues to increase. Therefore, the study of changes in the international oil market price trends and making a scientific development patterns for China's oil industry, taking the oil import market opportunities, building a resource-saving and environment-friendly socio-economic development strategy will be a Significant reality for the achievement of China's oil energy security .As far as the current oil market situation, oil prices have been rising in wild swings .As a big oil consuming and importing country, The oil price changing has far-reaching impact on the economic life of us . so we must have a deep analysis for the international oil market, and make forecasts about medium-and long-term trends in oil prices, which will provides real-world significance for the developing of the oil strategic policy.Currently, most of the analysis of the scholars at home and abroad on the international oil markets is focused only on a short-term or a partial analysis. The international oil market conditions for short-term prediction only can provide some short recommendations for speculation ,as to the formulation of long-term oil strategy is not meaningful. This article aims to use time series and factor make long-term forecasts analysis for international oil market conditions, so as to provide strategic guidance for the long-term development of China's oil industry.This paper introduces several basic theories about the market changes, and then analyzed several market-impacting factors in detail with large amounts of data and charts, followed by further predicting of the long-term international oil market situation trend with econometric models. The forecast show that oil market conditions fluctuate frequently in the short term, but in the long term it will appear upward trend. In the end of the paper, it analysis some developed countries in the energy strategy and oil reserves, and learn from the lessons to offer recommendations or countermeasures for the development of China's oil strategy .On the one hand, to expand China's oil import channels and establish a strategic oil reserve system; on the other hand, we must accelerate the development and utilization of new energy and make energy saving implementation. In addition, in order to avoid the risk of frequently changes, we should also participate the oil futures market actively.