The Application Of The Grey Model In The Prediction For Earing Per Share Of Ports And Shipping Listed Companies

Port and shipping industry is the basis of our national economy and it gets an increasing attention of managers and investors. By the end of 2007, this industry had been in rapid development period and its profitability was also far higher than other plates. However, because of the influence of the financial crisis, ports and shipping industry quickly fell to the bottom of A share market and became the biggest drop plate of the A share market in 2008 and 2009. Especially, China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company became the biggest loser of the A share market. With the stimulation and support of the country for the industry and the improvement of the economic situation at home and abroad, it is entering a new stage of development. But in the background of industry excessiveness, market atrophy and decreasing productivity, the future development of the waterway industry draw an especially urgent attention of managers and investors.Investors long depend only on the listed companies'published financial statements to grasp the companies'situation because of the fact that China's capital market started late. However, the statements contain enormous financial information so that it makes it a very difficult job for investors to grasp the enterprise's financial situation efficiently and accurately. As the most effective standard that reflects the operation state and the profitability, the company's earnings per share is a comprehensive index which can best measure the performance of listed company. More than 80% of investors and institutions use the earnings per share of published financial statements to make investment decision.Considering the Grey System's feature of "inadequate data and poor information", this thesis analyzed and summarized the research results of the predecessors. Because of the "grey features" of the listed company earnings per share itself, I use the grey relational analysis and cluster analysis to analyze the average earnings per share of port and shipping company, average earnings per share, Shanghai port and the China Ocean's earnings per share, etc. Furthermore, I use the grey prediction system and metabolism system to predict its earnings per share in the next five years so that investors, creditors and business operators can have a more thorough understanding of the waterway industry development trends, which, ultimately, will help them in investment.