Research In World Crude Oil Price And Its Factors

Oil is an important energy source and chemical raw material which occupies a large position in the national economy. At the same time oil is also one of strategic resources in the field of national defense and national security, which plays an irreplaceable role. As a single energy in the foreseeable future, oil remains the main energy source in the world.Forecasting oil price has a huge impact on oil companies, related industries and national economies, so all countries are very concerned about fluctuations of the world oil price. Furthermore, exactly predicting the trend of oil prices is the decision-making basis and guarantee of oil companies and countries.This paper firstly describes the factors affecting the international crude oil price in details, and then takes Johansen cointegration test between the price and impact factors. The result indicates that these variables exist the only cointegration relationship. In other words, the international crude oil spot price, oil consumption of OECD member countries, OPEC crude oil production, OECD crude oil stock and the dollar index have a long-term equilibrium relationship.Then this paper briefly illuminate the theories of the artificial neural network and BP neural network, which is followed by an example of short-term oil price prediction research based on BP neural network. In this paper we use two methods in our research, that are factors basing on crude oil price and time series data of international crude oil futures prices. And two kinds of BP neural network models are constructed, respectively. MATLAB software is also applied in the short-term oil price forecast, whose results show that it is feasible to the short-term crude oil price research by BP neural network. As a result, crude oil forecasting price and the actual value are fitting very well. The paper, in the last part, introduces the fundamental principles of system dynamics. Basing on the ideas of system dynamics and comprehensive analysis of the oil price system, the paper builds a causal loop diagrams, stock flow diagram and system equations, and then obtains oil price trend by computing simulation with VENSIM software. The model, we use to simulate the price fluctuation of international crude oil, does truly reflect the system of crude oil price, and could provide scientific basis for policy makers in future decision.