An Empirical Study Of Credit Risk Evaluation For The Small And Medium-Sized Enterprises

Along with the improving of market economy,Small and Medium-sized Enterprises(SME) are playing more and more importment role in China's society. However,it has led to the financial difficulties that weakly capital strength,nonstandard management,unfit financial systems and the disability on risk resistance,and that has turned up to the choke points which has restricted of the SME's development. It is more extrusive in the situation of financial crisis now. One of the difficulties is that SMEs'credit risk is different to assessment metrics. For the SMEs credit risk management, on the one hand social credit system should be establied more quickly, on the other hand appropriated methods is applied for SMEs'credit risk assessment , both are indispensable.This paper is researching on SME'credit risk measurement,to set off SME's ranges;to anatomy the reasons of SME's financial difficulty and point out credit risk measurement is the key to resovle this question ;to recommend four models that is popularly made use of in developed countries:CreditMetrics model,KMVmodel,CreditRisk+model,CreditPortfolioViewmodel,and go on comparatively analyizing. With Chinese SME's characters this thesis is put forward that SME's credit risk measurement should be combined qualitative analysis with quanlitative analysis. SMEs that have come into market are applying to measure credit risk with KMV model and SME that havenot come into market are used of PFM model and Hybrid Credit Risk Models。Both are put up empirically study.The result is that, KMVmodel revealled the default risk of SMEs in market,with the possibility default misjudgment. PFMmodel applied for SMEs out of market with financial statements, contrast SMEs out of market with in market with similar size and profitability, its expected default frequency is calculated. Hybrid Credit Risk Models (or as Subjective Amendment Act) applied for SMEs without financial statements,intuitive rating is aggregated with all risk characteristics, expected default frequency is calculated throughout with Logit model for objective risk characteristics, then intuitive rating is amended of the frequency. On the basis of study the report is proposed with policy recommendations. From the point of view of financing, reform of financial system should be advanced, the situation of monpoly of state-owned financial insitutions should be changed, facility must be diversity. From the point of view of SMEs, default cost should increase in order to lower ethical breach. And finally SMEs credit risk will be assessed with the development of credit evaluation system.