An Empirical Study On Forecast Bias And Factors In Chinese A Share Market

Securities analysts write the research reports of listed companies, as the information intermediaries in the securities market. Earning forecast is the core message of the report, the securities analyst earnings forecast accuracy is one measure of performance.This paper choose the earnings forecast bias as the research content.The first research on the domestic earnings estimates were reviewed in detail. Survey researchers have found that the domestic securities analyst earnings forecasts are optimistic bias phenomenon exists, and trying to characteristics of listed companies and analysts in their own profit motive to explain this phenomenon. In this paper, the Chinese A-share market from 2002 to 2009 data on the earnings forecast error for the empirical research to A-share market in China, there are also optimistic about the phenomenon of earnings forecast, while a further explanation by the securities analyst optimism bias systemic reasons.In this paper, the China Securities analyst earnings forecast accuracy are considered in empirical analysis with the influencing factors. Based on our analysis of the specific circumstances of the securities market, we made possible explanations from the securities analysts are rational and irrational behavior of the angle of the existence of the phenomenon of earnings forecast error.In addition, cross-sectional analysis, this paper investigates the possible impact on analyst forecast deviation factor. The empirical results show that earnings forecasts of securities analysts optimistic about the existence of systematic bias, and loss of earnings and profit forecasts the company there is a significant difference in loss of the company's,which earnings tend to be extremely overvalued securities analysts. Securities analyst earnings forecast error and the actual surplus of positive earning skewness. The predictability of corporate earnings and negatively related to securities analysts optimistic bias. And with the actual earnings announcement listed companies approaching, the securities analyst's earnings forecast optimism bias decreased.