Study On Offshore Ship Navigation Safety Assessment Based On Catastrope Theory

With the rapid development of global economy, the important role of maritime industry has become increasingly prominent. However, frequent maritime accidents are the main constraints of maritime industry. In order to reduce the keeping of high maritime accident rate and based on the importance of navigation safety in marine and management, the method combined with quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis is adopted. A safety assessment model of offshore ship navigation based on catastrophe theory is proposed to provide the basis for scientific management of maritime safety, as well as avoidand reduce marine accidents. Scholars at home and abroad have made great success in the maritime navigation safety assessment field, using safety assessment methord such as fuzzy mathematics, artificial neural networks and evidence theory. However, some of existing assessment methods are too subjective in dealing with weight, some can not banlance simple operation and easily understandable theory. Firstly, from the point of safety system engineering, offshore navigation ship is considered as an organic system consisting of man, machine, environment, management.After comprehensive analysis of characteristics and safety factors of offshore navigation ships, a four-level index system composed of more quantitative indexes and fewer qualitative indexes is established. Secondly, catastrophe theory and fuzzy mathematics theory are combined to provide the catastrophe model of safety assessment of offshore ship navigation, which can real-time monitor and comprehensively assess the safety of offshore ship navigation. Besides, five ships in Qinhuangdao sea area were demonstrated to verify the feasibility and reliability of the model.Finally, the conception of a computer-aided system based on Visual Basic 6.0 and SQL Server 2000 is proposed using computer-aided safety assessment technology, and the development of core modules based on catastrophe model was finished. On the other hand, proposals about strengthening education of marine management reserve, strictly guarding market access, taking full use of technological innovation and integrating shipbuilding enterprise are given to improve offshore navigation ship safety.