Research On Management Over The Key Account's Electricity Load

While the nation experiences swift development in national economy, there is a great concern in its electric power sector, that is, the nation's maximum of electricity load as well as its electricity consumption is continuously increased, yet the gap between the load crest and trough is ever enlarging while the rate of daily electric load is decreasing, which brings great challenges to the power network's running in a safe, stable, economical and secure state. On the other hand, the key electric power account, as an important customer to the power supply enterprise, is the main target for the enterprise to adjust the electricity load. Therefore, the research into management over the key account's electricity load is the centre of research on strengthening the load balance management.This thesis takes the key electric power account as its object, the stabilization of their electricity load as its target, the demand side management (DSM) as its theoretical foundation, the analysis of the key account's load characteristics and the forecast of their load as its analytic basis, and the implementation of customer relationship management (CRM) and the electricity price reform as its analytic approaches. In the light of the nation's present situation that its electricity is in ever-growing short supply and of the power supplier's present situation in operation, and based on a summary, also used for reference, of the previous research achievements in DSM, the thesis probes into the power supplier's effective managerial approaches to the key account's electricity load by means of qualitative and quantitative analysis, theoretical analysis and case study. And the main achievements in this thesis include: (1) It defines the key electric power account by applying the compound analysis of the customer value. This approach overcomes the present weakness that the customer's future value is overlooked on this issue. By this approach the power supplier's key accounts are grouped into four categories. (2) Based on an analysis of the present situation in power demand and supply and the importance of carrying out DSM, It concludes that to solve the present problemof power shortage, it is not only required that more power plants be built as regards the supplier side, but more that the management of electricity demand be enhanced as regards the demand side, so as to realize the electricity consumption in an orderly way. (3) Based on comparisons of advantages and disadvantages between the artificial nerve network and the grey forecast method, the thesis proposes another approach to forecast the electric load - series ambiguous nerve network forecast. After a case study it concludes that generally this approach is more precise in forecasting the mid- and long-term power load than the BP nerve network or grey forecast method. (4) It offers some specific approaches to and suggestions about how to manage the key account's electricity load from such two facets as CRM and electricity price reform, in an attempt to provide some reference basis for the power supplier's management over the key account's electricity load.